Regime Resilience and the Limits of Coercion: Three Scenarios for the Iran War

This analysis maps three scenarios for the US-Israeli war on Iran — frozen attrition, structural escalation, and regime change — evaluated along three axes: IRGC resilience, the limits of coercive strategy, and the fractures emerging within the Western alliance architecture.

[ARTICLE] European Narratives and Strategies to Survive in a Changing World

One of the main challenges affecting the EU structure is the absence of a shared strategic narrative to unite all member states and develop a common strategic path to navigate global uncertainties. This narrative would be a geopolitical compass based on geopolitical necessities and threats, that would guide the EU’s foreign policy and diplomacy.

New Normal of Deliberate Escalation Between India and Pakistan

The May 2025 crisis between India and Pakistan reflects a shifting security paradigm in South Asia where deliberate escalation increasingly unfolds under the shadow of nuclear deterrence. The integration of advanced technologies has lowered traditional thresholds of conflict while expanding the scope of engagements. The weaponization of non-traditional domains such as water resources and information space further highlights the multidimensional nature of contemporary warfare between the two states. While third-party mediation helped avert full-scale war, it remains insufficient in addressing the deeper structural causes of recurring instability.

Sovereignty as a Service – IRIS² and the EU’s New Connectivity Model

IRIS² is the EU’s bid to secure satellite connectivity for governments while also supporting commercial services. The real test is governance. Who controls access, how crisis priority is decided, and how accountability works in a long public–private concession will shape whether IRIS² actually strengthens EU autonomy.

The Devil is in the Detail: How the EU Anti-Coercion Instrument’s Legal Features Could Lead to a Political Fiasco

The EU Anti-Coercion Instrument tests the cohesion of the Union amidst US tariffs and international law compliance.

FAFO vs TACO: How Latin America Is Reading (And Gaming) Trump’s Threats Since Venezuela

After the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, Latin American governments are recalibrating how seriously to take Trump’s threats beyond Venezuela. This piece maps Mexico, Colombia, and Cuba through the FAFO vs TACO lens, and asks where the practical ceiling on U.S. escalation sits in 2026.