(Analysis) North Korea’s Troop Deployment To Russia-Ukraine War: Stategic Gamble?

The Russia-Ukraine war has become a focal point of global attention, with daily updates on attacks, casualties, and shifting battlefronts. The conflict has long transcended its initial boundaries, drawing in actors and interests far beyond the two warring nations. While early reports have highlighted North Korea’s (DPRK) supply of munitions to Russia- actions that might align with typical ally support. Recent revelations have sent shockwaves through the international community.

In October, intelligence confirmed DPRK has dispatched troops to support Russia’s war efforts. This marks the first direct involvement of a foreign power in the conflict. Raising critical questions: What drives Pyongyang to make such a risky and provocative move? And what ripple effects might this have on the geopolitical landscape?

Who are these DPRK Troops on the Battlefield?

Evidence suggests these soldiers are operating more as mercenaries than formal military personnel. These troops are reportedly dressed in Russian military uniforms. Such actions can be seen as Russia’s attempt to eliminate the presence of foreign fighters on the battlefield. South Korea’s Defense Minister has emphasized that this North Korean personnel, when engaged on the battlefield, should be classified as a mercenary body rather than state-dispatched troops.

Nevertheless, the mercenary label does little to diminish the significance of DPRK’s involvement in the conflict. Signaling its willingness to bolster its ally Russia while avoiding accusations of invading foreign countries.

The secretive nature of DPRK makes it challenging to uncover the details of its troop deployment. Estimations of their numbers vary widely, from around 11,000 to as many as 100,000. There have been recent reports of heavy casualties on the frontline or Russian troops complaining about the DKK troops. It may instantly make people feel Kim sent poorly trained and inexperienced troops. Dismiss these soldiers as cannon fodder, relying on sheer numbers in a nod to old-fashioned tactics, but the picture might not be as straightforward as it seems.

Storm Crops

North Korean military defectors reveal a surprising twist: Kim deployed Pyongyang’s elite “Storm Corps.” Although not conventional frontline soldiers, this unit is rigorously trained in infiltration, infrastructure sabotage, and assassinations. Defectors warn that underestimating these troops would be a grave mistake. Moreover, the defector suggested Kim would not want to embarrass himself or undermine Putin. Indicating that these soldiers are likely specially selected for the mission.

More Detailed Interview with ex-North Korean Soldiers: “Don’t underestimate North Korean troops in Russia”, Jean Mackenzie, BBC, 20 Dec 2024

Motivations Behind the Move?

For Russia

North Korea’s offer of manpower appears highly appealing. The conflict, now stretching into its third year. It has seen both sides employ a mix of conventional and hybrid tactics. Among these, Russia’s reliance on age-old battlefield strategies—such as the “meat grinder” and “flooding” tactics—has drawn significant attention.

The “meat grinder” prioritizes overwhelming the enemy through sheer troop density and relentless intensity, blending elements of attrition and mass mobilization. This strategy has yielded some success: reports indicate that Russia has captured or retaken approximately 2,350 square kilometers (907 square miles) in eastern Ukraine and parts of Russia’s western Kursk region. However, the cost is staggering. Relying on brute manpower has resulted in catastrophic casualties, with U.S. and U.K. intelligence estimating up to 1,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded daily.

Despite these losses, Russia’s commitment to this approach shows no signs of waning. Putin has recently ordered the recruitment of an additional 180,000 troops, bringing the Russian army to nearly 2.4 million.

Against this backdrop, North Korea’s willingness to provide manpower emerges as an attractive proposition for Russia. Moscow gains reinforcements without further exhausting its resources, extending the viability of its high-casualty strategies.

For North Korea

This integrated support likely serves as a strategic trade-off for food and resources from Russia. Reportedly, these soldiers are paid USD $2000 per month. Pyongyang appears to have placed most of its bets on its relationship with Moscow than Beijing. As evidenced by the recent strengthening of ties between the two nations. Signaling a shift away from its traditionally China-centric approach.

Additionally, North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war offers its military a rare opportunity to gain valuable combat experience—something it has not had on a significant scale since the Korean War. Some commentators see it as a preparation for any future hot wars on the Korean Peninsula. Persistent resource shortages, including fuel and materials, have hindered the DPRK military’s ability to conduct adequate training. Nuclear development has dominated North Korea’s focus, leaving other military capabilities underdeveloped. Hence, participation in the conflict provides a chance to bridge this gap, further bolstering its operational capabilities.

Beyond the Battlefield: Implication of North Korea Involvement

Suspected Domestic Stability in North Korea

Before delving into the broader geopolitical implications, it’s worth considering that North Korea’s bold move may also reflect internal challenges Kim Jong-un is grappling with. Dr. Kim Dong-su, a former North Korean diplomat, recently shared his perspective in a private conversation. Indicating that Kim’s decision to send special forces in exchange for food and resources could be symptomatic of the regime’s dire domestic situation. He hinted that the Kim regime may not be as secure as previously believed, suggesting that internal pressures are likely driving such a risky decision.

More insights from Dr. Kim Dong-su on North Korea: “The meaning of the recent series of North Korean diplomats,” Kim Dong Su, City Post, 4th Aug 2024; “Kim Dong Su Deep Analysis on North Korea Foreign Policy in Kim Jong Un’s Era,” Centre for East Asian Peace and Cooperation Studies, 22nd Aug 2022

Forging Stronger Ties: North Korea-Russia Partnership

The deployment of DPRK troops in supporting Russia’s war effort underscores the deepening ties between Russia and North Korea. Marking a shift from a transactional relationship to a more enduring strategic and ideological partnership. In June 2024, the two nations solidified their alliance through Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The treaty encompasses a mutual defense agreement alongside expanded cooperation in economic, scientific, labor, and technological sectors. A shared commitment to long-term collaboration.

Since the agreement, reports indicate a dramatic increase in the supply of artillery from Pyongyang to Moscow, as well as the presence of North Korean military advisors on Russian battlefields. And DPRK troops in the Russia-Ukraine War. These developments not only highlight the growing interdependence between the two countries but also reflect their alignment in confronting shared adversaries and bolstering their respective geopolitical ambitions.

Will Other Russia’s Allies Step Deeper Into the Conflict?

A firmly established alliance between North Korea and Russia raises questions about the potential involvement of Russia’s other close allies, such as Belarus or even members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Could Moscow exert pressure on Belarus, its steadfast European ally, to follow North Korea’s example by providing more direct assistance to Russia in its war efforts?

The likelihood of Russia’s other partners taking such a bold step as North Korea remains low given North Korea’s uniquely isolated position on the international stage. If such developments materialize, the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate from a covertly factional conflict into an overt bloc-versus-bloc confrontation. This shift would not only prolong the war but also increase the likelihood of its spread into other regions, resulting in a dangerous horizontal escalation that destabilizes global security even further.

China’s Quite Respond: Balancing Interest Amid Rising Tension

China has remained notably silent regarding the deployment of DPRK troops to support Russia, the deepening ties between Russia and DPRK, and the broader conflict itself. This measured response reflects China’s foreign policy approach of balancing between parties without making overtly clear statements.

Nevertheless, both Russia and North Korea remain strategic partners for China. For instance, China maintains a bilateral strategic partnership described as having “no limits” with each of them. With the growing certainty of a bilateral alliance between Russia and North Korea, and China’s established ties with both. One might question whether the emergence of a trilateral alliance or bloc is on the horizon. If such an alliance were to emerge, it could be perceived as a concerted effort to promote their shared worldview. 

Learn More about China’s Stance in the Conflict: “A Chinese Scholar’s Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War,” Guan Guihai, Council on Foreign Relations, 1st April 2024

Expanding Frontlines: The Conflict’s Shift Beyond Europe

North Korea’s direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised alarms in South Korea. While there are currently no plans to deploy South Korean troops, the country has signaled the possibility of lifting the weapons sales ban on Ukraine. South Korea may also consider sending military personnel to Ukraine to monitor the presence of North Korean troops and assist in managing potential North Korean prisoners of war.

The growing cooperation between North Korea and Russia could signal an anti-U.S. front. This development could also suggest that should a conflict arise on the Korean Peninsula, Russia may take a similar approach, further increasing uncertainty and instability in the region.

Axis Alliance at Indo-Pacific?

Experts argue that North Korea’s military involvement aligns with Russia’s broader foreign policy strategy, which envisions Russia as a vast Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power. Russia’s key foreign policy priorities include the Arctic, Eurasia, the Indo-Pacific, and the Global South. As the U.S. and Europe intensify their focus on the Indo-Pacific, a shift that runs counter to Putin’s interests. Russia has responded by strengthening North Korea’s military and nuclear capabilities in the region. This deepening China-North Korea-Russia alignment reflects a broader strategy to expand their influence and counter Western ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.

What drives North Korea to take the extraordinary step of sending troops to the battlefield? While the precise motivations remain elusive, they are likely multifaceted and deeply complex. The war in Ukraine may divert European attention, but North Korea’s involvement signals a broader shift, expanding the conflict beyond Europe with far-reaching geopolitical implications. As Pyongyang deepens its ties with Moscow, the ripple effects could reshape alliances, heighten tensions, and significantly impact security dynamics, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Further Readings:

Scollon, M. (2024). ‘They’re Totally Not Ready’: Ex-Soldier Reveals Why North Korean Troops Will Struggle Against Ukraine. [online] RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Available at: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-north-korea/33191962.html.

‌Cha, V., Snegovaya, M., Blanchette, J. & Seiler, S. (2024). A Threat Like No Other – The Russia-North Korea Alliance | The Impossible State | CSIS Podcasts. 1st July 2024 [online] Available at: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/impossible-state/threat-no-other-russia-north-korea-alliance.

Glantz, M., Aum, F., Freeman, C. & Kuo, N. (2024). North Korean Troops in Russia Show Putin Is Doubling Down on Ukraine War. 29th October 2024 [online] Available at: https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/10/north-korean-troops-russia-show-putin-doubling-down-ukraine-war.