- A Coup Foretold: Brazil Confronts the Depths of a Plot to Kill Lula - 4 April, 2025
- Down to the Rubbish: How Media Built Brazil’s Celebrity Judges - 17 March, 2025
- Brazil’s Supreme Court: Democracy in Crisis? - 5 March, 2025
In November 2024, Brazil’s Federal Police made public what had long lingered as speculation: a military plot to assassinate President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin before their 2023 inauguration. The operation—known as Punhal Verde e Amarelo (‘Green and Yellow Dagger’)—was developed within the upper echelons of Jair Bolsonaro’s government and allegedly involved the murder of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the imposition of a military junta, and the annulment of the electoral result. A failed insurrection on 8 January 2023, until then seen as the climax of Bolsonarismo’s challenge to democracy, was perhaps only the visible tip of a darker design.
Anatomy of a Conspiracy
The main suspect, retired Brigadier General Mário Fernandes, had occupied a key executive role in Bolsonaro’s cabinet. In November 2022, Fernandes reportedly printed a copy of the assassination plan from inside the Palácio do Planalto. It detailed an operation planned for December 15—three days after Lula’s official certification as winner of the presidential election. The document proposed the killing of Lula, Alckmin, and Moraes via gunshot or poison. In the event of success, retired generals Braga Netto and Augusto Heleno—both former ministers—would assume command of the country and install a transitional regime. The aim was to “restore order” and hold new elections under military oversight.
Among the suspects arrested or investigated are several officers with Special Forces training, as well as close advisers to Bolsonaro. While the military has downplayed the arrests, asserting that the officers were not involved in G20 security in Rio de Janeiro where some were apprehended, their former proximity to the presidency is uncontested.
From Planning to Uprising
The seeds of the plot appear to have been sown months earlier. A Federal Police investigation revealed that in July 2022, a high-level meeting was held within Bolsonaro’s circle to discuss the logistics of a golpe de Estado. A video recording of this meeting was found on the computer of Mauro Cid, Bolsonaro’s aide-de-camp and former lieutenant colonel. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, now presiding over the investigation at the STF, described the footage as evidence of “a coup dynamic arranged at the highest levels of government.”
Two weeks after the meeting, Bolsonaro invited foreign ambassadors to the Palácio da Alvorada and publicly questioned the integrity of Brazil’s voting system. According to prosecutors, this served to “verbalise” previously discredited fraud claims, aiming to sow doubt among Brazil’s international allies and domestic audience alike.
Following his defeat to Lula in the October 2022 runoff, Bolsonaro went silent. He avoided public appearances, skipped his Thursday livestreams, and eventually fled to Florida, leaving the presidency without formally acknowledging the result. His departure came just days before Lula’s inauguration.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaristas set up encampments outside army barracks, calling for military intervention. On December 12—the day Lula’s election was formally certified—rioters attempted to storm the Federal Police headquarters in Brasília, torching vehicles and clashing with security forces. It was, in hindsight, a dress rehearsal for what would unfold on January 8.
Cascade of Indictments
In the aftermath of the failed insurrection, thousands were arrested. Many have since been released, but over 200 people have already been sentenced by the Supreme Court for their role in what the judiciary now refers to as an attempted coup. Among them were demonstrators, financiers, and organisers. Some cases sparked debate over due process, but the broader response from the courts has been unambiguous in that there will be no amnesty.
The central question regarding Bolsonaro’s role has moved from implication to formal accusation. In June 2023, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) barred him from holding office until 2030 for abuse of power and misuse of public channels during the ambassadors’ meeting. By November 2024, federal police formally indicted the former president in the attempted coup probe. And in February 2025, the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGR) followed suit, filing charges with the Supreme Court based on an 884-page investigation.
The STF will begin reviewing whether to accept the charges against Bolsonaro and seven other defendants. The case will hinge on the strength of the evidence gathered by the Federal Police, which includes documents, witness statements, and digital communications. But the political implications are already evident: Brazil may see a former president tried not only for undermining democracy but for conspiring to murder the man who succeeded him.
What Comes Next
In Brazil, the judicialisation of politics is nothing new. But the current cycle has torn through old assumptions. Bolsonaro is not just being accused of constitutional overreach or disinformation. He now stands at the center of an alleged conspiracy to forcibly reverse an election result through a military takeover. The scope is unprecedented in the country’s recent history.
Justice Moraes, who presides over many of the related inquiries, remains both praised and vilified: seen by some as the last line of defence against authoritarianism and by others as the architect of a judiciary that’s overstepped its democratic bounds. His name, like Lula’s, sits at the heart of this confrontation. Whether Brazil emerges from this chapter with stronger democratic guardrails remains uncertain.
Key Questions:
- Does the exposure and investigation of the alleged plot indicate strength or fragility in Brazil’s democratic institutions?
- What role should the judiciary play in responding to threats against democratic processes without overstepping its mandate?
- How can civilian authorities assert oversight over the military without provoking backlash, given the armed forces’ deep political entanglements?
Suggested Reading:
- Akkoyunlu, Karabekir, and José Antonio Lima. 2021. “Brazil’s Stealth Military Intervention.” Journal of Politics in Latin America 14 (1). https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X211039860.
- Falcão, Márcio, and Ana Flávia Castro. 2025. “Bolsonaro, Braga Netto, ‘Kids Pretos’: Relembre Núcleos do Inquérito do Golpe e as Datas de Julgamento no STF.” G1, March 19, 2025. https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2025/03/19/bolsonaro-braga-netto-kids-pretos-relembre-nucleos-do-inquerito-do-golpe-e-as-datas-de-julgamento-no-stf.ghtml.
- Oyama, Thaís. 2020. Tormenta: O Governo Bolsonaro – Crises, Intrigas e Segredos. São Paulo: Companhia das Letras.
