The story behind the 2024 Labour victory and lessons for other left-leaning parties across continental Europe

The collapse of the Conservative party after more than a decade of uninterrupted rule didn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but the reasons for a record voter turnout in favor of Labour are more complex than it seems at first glance. Keir Starmer has secured an astonishing victory and the largest majority government in 25 years with 412 seats in the House of Commons (Kirk et al., 8024). The landslide majority has almost overshadowed a fact that could unravel the Labour success story.

Despite securing 211 seats more than in the last general election, is it important to note that Starmer has underperformed in terms of vote share compared to past leaders of the party, which suggests that victory margins were narrower this time around (Bhatiya, 2024). This would suggest that the prevalent media narrative of a liberal comeback may be deceiving and that British voters did not choose a left majority but rather decided to vote out the ineffective Tory government. Ben Wellings, a professor at Monash University, has questioned whether the recent UK election represents a real change in voter preference, or if it is just one more instance of electoral volatility (2024). This article analyzes to what extent the Labour Party can claim credit for their election success, and if there are lessons to be learned for their European colleagues.

Labour Manifesto

Underneath a studious-looking photo of its current leader, Keir Starmer, the title page of Labour’s Party Manifesto reads, ”Our plan for Britain is a fully costed, fully funded, credible plan to turn the country around after 14 years of the Conservatives. It contains a tax lock for working people – a pledge not to raise rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.”It continues, “Public investment, where it supports and de-risks additional private investment, is one important tool being used successfully across the world,”  and “Labour will cap corporation tax at the current level of 25 percent, the lowest in the G7, for the entire parliament, and we will act if tax changes in other countries pose a risk to UK competitiveness.”

One of the key promises is not to raise the main rates of VAT, National Insurance, Income, or Corporation tax, which comes off as rather unusual for a left-wing party. Indeed, a general trend of aligning Labour towards the centre has been observed by experts and watchers. As Claire Ainsley states, “Elections are fought and won in the centre ground of British politics. The challenge for Labour now, and the centre-left around the world, is to revive the centre as a dynamic political force that inspires hope as well as security.” She argues that the centre-left should aim at creating the conditions for innovation and prosperity, while also responding to the needs of the people.

Responding to voter needs

The decade following the Financial Crisis has seen voters more concerned about matters such as mortgage payments, rent, bills, and necessities. Incidentally, it was also marked by a global rise of the political right that seemed unstoppable. Although it looks as if social democracy could be back with the election of social democrats in Germany, the far-right still looms at large, and leftwing parties are anxiously searching for a strategy on how to win back voters’ trust. According to some observers, Labour has taken desperate measures and has deliberately purged the left within its ranks, most notably Jeremy Corby, the former Party leader who was thought to support more “extreme” left policies. Keir Starmer has claimed as early as 2022 that Labour is firmly in the center ground of British politics, from where he believes his party is ready to answer voter demands.

His strategy of combating the radical right differs from that of his colleagues in that he has chosen a less ideological route, consisting of removing potholes in the nation’s roads and tackling hospital waiting times, all in the hopes of addressing what is believed to be the root cause of far-right popularity: dissatisfaction with the living standards. His goal is to deal with socio-economic conditions that have created the space for extremist violence, and show Brits that “politics can solve real-world problems.”

Labour victory in perspective

Despite securing a landslide majority, critics argue that having only won 34% of the overall vote, Labour does not have a strong mandate to govern. The 2024 election was not only marked by a historically low voter turnout, at only 60%, but also by a rise in support for alternative parties such as Liberal Democrats, and the right-wing populist Reform UK, which ranked third when it comes to overall vote share. Apurav Bhatiya argues that, while the 2024 election was a record defeat for the Conservatives, the Labour victory can be attributed to “voters’ dissatisfaction with the Conservative government’s handling of the cost of living crisis and internal party conflicts, suggesting that the result was more an anti-Conservative vote than a pro-Labour one.”

Martin Williams explains that the support for Labour did not increase and that the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system is to thank for the Party’s success, while John Curtice, a BBC polling expert, agrees that Labour victory has been achieved on the back of a stark 20 point decline in Conservative support, stating that “All in all this looks more like an election the Conservatives lost than one Labour won.” Chris Mason puts it clearly: “The story of this election is one of an electorate showing a ruthless determination to eject the Conservatives. In plenty of places that meant electing a Labour MP.”

Conclusion

There is no doubt that Labour policies will dominate Britain’s economy and society for the next four years, but what was once a markedly left-leaning party is now one exhibiting more centrist reforms that hope to appeal to a wider electorate. Experts that shown, however, that a landslide Labour victory is masked by a dissatisfaction with the current status quo that has resulted in a massive drop in Conservative support, and a determination to vote them out. By responding to voters’ long-standing socio-economic problems, Starmer hopes to consolidate his Party’s newly won power and at the same time weaken the far-right.

Questions for consideration:

What can other left parties learn from the 2024 UK elections?

Has Labour chosen the correct strategy for combating the far-right?

Will Keir Starmer be an effective Labour leader?

Further reading:

“General election 2024 results” UK Parliament. 24 September 2024

Wells, I. “What Went Wrong for the Conservatives?”, BBC, 5 July 2024.

Difford, D. and Smith, M. “The public reaction to the 2024 riots”, YouGOV, 6 August 2024.