It is the evening of the 17th April on the Ibler Square in Zagreb, and as he watches the preliminary results come in, sweat drips down the forehead of Peđa Grbin, the leader of the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP). Although remaining stoic for the cameras while loss seemed increasingly imminent, the SDP leadership and the left-wing opposition were deeply surprised by the results of the Parliamentary elections, especially following the record turnout of over 60%, the largest since the early 2000s. As per the woes of the liberal public, and the triumphant exclamations of the conservatives, this article traces the upheavals post the April election to determine the future of the Croatian political landscape.
Croatian politics has been dominated by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) since the country’s independence in 1991, a party that has guided it on its pro-European path until present, cementing its position as a trusted EU and NATO member. Domestically, on the other hand, things have been less than idyllic. From record inflation rates, mass emigration of the highly educated youth, to high profile corruption affairs that have forced dozens of cabinet ministers to resign their position in the past several years, Croatia can be considered one of the corruption capitals of the world.
Corruption and the Radical Right as a Winning Strategy
Despite taking more than ten days for official results to come in from the National Election Committee (DIP), by the morning of the 18th April even a casual political observer knew that, having seemingly secured 42 seats out of the 76 needed to form a government, the left-wing Rivers of Justice (Rijeke pravde) coalition would need a miracle to dethrone Andrej Plenković, who had just de-facto won his third consecutive term as Prime Minister. As if this had not been enough of a challenge for the health of Croatian democracy, riddled with corruption affairs and with an ever-growing lean towards authoritarianism, Plenković has chosen the far-right Homeland Movement (DP) as his trusted coalition partner, and thus brough the radical right into government for the first time in the country’s history. A former MEP, and once celebrated as a pioneer of EU-like liberal politics with the power to modernize the conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), Plenković’s decision to partner with the far-right has now become part of his political legacy.
The Coalition Government and the New Political Reality
Not much is known about the exact details of the coalition agreement between HDZ and DP. The latter’s refusal to coexist with the representative of the Serbian national minority, Milorad Pupovac, and their obsession with the past, however, is familiar even to the foreign media. Politico writes of historical revisionism, allegations of war-crime denial and use of Nazi-era chants as only some of a number of controversies surrounding DP, whose main support comes from rural places in Eastern Croatia. Federico Baccini of EUNews predicts that bringing radical nationalists into government will further accentuate the revisionist rhetoric and impact social rights.
Sanja Modrić agrees that the social climate in Croatia has already begun to change. Although the official rhetoric is that the new government will continue on its pro-European course of protecting minority rights and the freedom of media, she contends, the Homeland Movement has no intention of abandoning its “Trumpian manifest”, that will bring about a sharp turn right the likes of which was seen in Poland. Her prediction does not seem to be amiss, as frictions have already risen in the ruling coalition over the selection of the President of the Committee for Human Rights and the Rights of Ethnical Minorities. HDZ suggested the appointment of Milorad Pupovac, to which DP, unsurprisingly, did not respond with enthusiasm. Igor Peternel, one of the leading members of Homeland Movement, has even said that the coalition agreement would be declared invalid if Pupovac was elected. Another one of former’s public statements that gives a snippet as to what DP is really about, is his pronouncement that the liberation from the Nazi puppet state in Spring 1945 should actually be considered an occupation day.
The Absurdity Manifest
One of the main objectives that DP is hoping to achieve is to bring back the Croatian diaspora from South America, notorious for containining a large number of descendants of the Nazi-puppet state that escaped prosecution in the aftermath of the Second World War. Notwithstanding the absurdity of this undertaking, its irony is in the fact that the election of the radical right into government will likely drive away a disproportionately larger number of the population than the proposed plan to “revitalize Croatia” through emigration could ever hope to attract. It also remains unclear how the Homeland Movement intends to convince these new potential citizens to take on the low paying jobs that are currently performed by foreign workers, although this does not seem to concern their electorate.
The moto on the cover page of DP’s website proudly states “Let’s stop the spread of Brussels authority”, while the first section of their manifest, entitled “The Strategy for the Demographic Revival and the Protection of the Family”, reads like a passage directly copy-pasted from the Old Testament; “DP stands for the preservation of the natural moral law, from which the provisions of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights derive, and firmly supports the Constitutional provision according to which the family represents women and men”. Alongside their trusted partner, the Croatian Catholic Church, Homeland Movement supports the complete fusion of religion and state, which has already been initiated by promoting the conservative religious ideology as part of mandatory high school education, and it is not a stretch to say that Croatia might soon join the likes of El Salvador, Honduras, Senegal, and Laos, in completely erasing the right to abortion from its constitution.
Conclusion
All things considered, the future of Croatian political landscape is looking quite grim. Riddled with corruption affairs and in the hands of the far-right, the government is likely to continue making controversial policies that are celebrated by the conservative rural public, Catholic Church, and nationalists. Now that it has gained significant platform in the mainstream politics, Homeland Movement has both space and opportunity to advance its controversial policies. Its polarizing rhetoric could deepen the ethnic and religious tensions, undo the efforts to improve social and minority rights, and steer Croatia off its pro-EU course.
Questions for reflection:
- How will the election of the radical right effect the state of human rights in Croatia?
- What are the factors in Croatia that influence the election outcome?
- Who are the main stakeholders of Croatian politics?
Additional Readings
Adorno, T. (1982) The Authoritarian Personality. New York: W. W. Norton & Company
JOVIĆ, D., & LAMONT, C. K. (2010). Introduction: Croatia after Tuđman: Encounters with the Consequences of Conflict and Authoritarianism. Europe-Asia Studies, 62(10), 1609–1620. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25764716
Deloy, C. (2024) Will the Democratic Union (HDZ) remain in power in Croatia?. Foundation Robert Schuman. https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/monitor/6092-will-the-democratic-union-hdz-remain-in-power-in-croatia
Greatly presented, Keep up with the good work 🌻