After the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, Latin American governments are recalibrating how seriously to take Trump’s threats beyond Venezuela. This piece maps Mexico, Colombia, and Cuba through the FAFO vs TACO lens, and asks where the practical ceiling on U.S. escalation sits in 2026.
As tensions rise between the United States and Venezuela ahead of their upcoming presidential elections, the delicate balance of democracy and diplomacy comes into focus. The US had eased sanctions to encourage dialogue, but recent events have sparked renewed friction, leading to the reimposition of sanctions. Venezuela is grappling with economic challenges and diplomatic strains, especially with recent bans on opposition candidates. As both countries navigate these issues, the future of US-Venezuela relations is uncertain, with potential impacts beyond their borders.
The Venezuela-Guyana Essequibo dispute reignited in 2015 with ExxonMobil’s oil discovery, escalating under Maduro’s sovereignty claims. Recent actions include a contentious referendum and military exercises. Historical efforts temporarily eased tensions, but post-2015 incidents strained relations. Analysts view a Venezuelan military move as improbable, given global opposition, economic challenges, and unfavorable court rulings. Tensions persist, but military actions seem driven more by domestic considerations than a genuine threat.
The Ukrainian war skyrocketed the oil and gas prices, pushing the US inflation.
President Biden, as a pragmatic Democrat, started to revive the commercial relations with Venezuela, putting at stake his reputation on human rights.
