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By: Christopher Ynclan Jr.
Babiš is Back
Source: Gabriel Miklós via Unsplash
In another political comeback of last year, former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and his ANO movement returned to power through a coalition deal with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) along with the less extreme Motorists for Themselves party. Previously, the billionaire Babiš in 2021 lost to the center-right Together coalition who capitalized on domestic discontent from his extravagant offshore real estate dealings revealed in the Pandora Papers. While sometimes called the Czech version of Trump, it is to be noted that like the American President he has held control of the ANO party since first term as Prime Minister. Given this is the case, the policies that will drive his second term will largely be driven by Babiš himself. His second term comes at a momentous time in European politics. There has been disclosure of the Hungarian foreign minister potentially passing on sensitive EU information to the Russian foreign minister at a time near the Hungarian elections. Moreover, the conflict that will decide European security has taken a backseat to American escalation in the Persian Gulf against Iran. As these are the stakes, it is therefore necessary to explore how Babiš might interact with European institutions along with major geopolitical powers affecting Europe today.
The First Term of Babiš
With the Hungarian elections results drawing the attention of Brussels, there are valid questions as to what his policies mean for a wide variety of issues affecting Europe. Andrej Babiš was no stranger to the controversial former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the two Central European heads of state worked together to oppose irregular immigration through approaching regional institutions and stakeholders.
Source: Daniel Schludi via Unsplash
A major event that occurred during the first term of Babiš was the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic which ravaged Europe with its older populations. With so much going on in the world, it is hard to perfectly remember the number of infections or fatalities that each nation suffered. Most would like to forget. The constant reporting of increasing infections did little to ease the anxieties of any public globally. This was especially nerve racking when there was no vaccine and the virus mutated into different strains. Moreover, the efficacy of government response depended widely on the country in which one lived.
Governments with illiberal tendencies had among some of the highest degrees of fatalities throughout the world. In Latin America, Brazil under the leadership of Jair Bolsonaro had around 700,000 fatalities. At the time that Trump left office when his first term ended in 2021, the total death toll for Americans had reached nearly half a million. In the American case, the enforcement of policies aimed at curbing the number of new infections had become polarized. Conspiracy theories about the origin spread online, dangerous medications were promoted and different states had separate responses to the spread of the virus. The result was over a million dead Americans in total at the end of 2023.
The Czech Republic did not suffer the same substantial number of fatalities as the United States, but it was deeply affected by the pandemic nonetheless. At one point during the pandemic the Czech Republic had more new Covid cases per million people than any other major country in the world. The Czech government under the leadership of Babiš did enact contradictory policies regarding public health during the pandemic. The government enacted a state of emergency aimed at enacting measures to address the second surge of the virus through Europe. Prague in spring 2020 enacted a mask mandate which largely proved successful, but they did not continue the policy as cases momentarily declined. Babiš lifted the mask mandate in the summer of 2020, largely due to electoral concerns. As cases climbed again, the mask mandate was reintroduced as epidemiologists suggested beforehand.
This inconsistency in policy was not unnoticed by either the political opponents of Babiš or the Czech public. The state of emergency that his government imposed was controversial within Czech politics as it led to a constitutional crisis after it had been voted down by members of parliament. Czech lawmakers drafted and enacted legislation that introduced checks on the authority of Babiš to unilaterally enact measures to combat the pandemic. Instead of allowing him to solely enact such measures in the future, the authority had been given to the Ministry of Health and other smaller bodies. The unpopularity that Babiš’s actions were not lost on him as he apologized for the policies of his government aimed at fighting the increase of cases.
Source: Daniyar Orazov via Unsplash
Europe and its Security
On the topic of European security, Babiš has a mixed record when it comes to its advancement. Before returning to his second time in office he campaigned against further Czech spending on military assistance to Ukraine while Putin’s Russia continues to threaten its security and sovereignty. Since coming to power, Babiš has not pulled out of the Czech ammunition initiative but there have been countries that have backed out of the program. Current Russian advances may be stagnating, but the ammunition drive and the Russo-Ukrainian itself reveal larger problems for European security.
Diplomacy is notoriously difficult. Bringing the largest war on the Continent since the Second World War is not going to be easy for anyone involved. Not only this, but it is perhaps the most internationalized since then with the inclusion of North Korean troops and mercenaries from Latin America on the battlefield. However, Europe must understand what it can do. Putin is not going to end the war anytime soon due to his consolidation of the Russian mercenaries into more formal channels and ongoing diplomatic strains that the United States is facing amid its ongoing hostilities with Iran. With American intention diverted and European unity strained, Putin is certain to resume hostilities for the foreseeable future.
Source: Marek Studzinski via Unsplash
So what problems must Europe overcome and what exactly can it do? For starters, Europe as a whole can invest more both financially and politically in their strategic autonomy. The stagnation of the Czech led ammunition initiative is a microcosm of a larger problem of Europe to coordinate on defense issues. It also reflects what happens when the proponent of a policy is not wholly or at least largely committed to its implementation. If something seems dead on arrival, it will not inspire confidence in other European leaders to invest their political capital for something without long term prospects.
Europe is in a difficult position. It is being threatened from its east by a former superpower. One whose territorial ambitions would gladly go beyond Ukraine were it not for both the continued Western support of Ukraine and the guarantee of NATO’s Article 5. From its Western flank, it faces a transactional superpower who continues to harm its credibility and by extension deteriorate European security. Its leader requires preeminence in all dealings and when he perceives a slight, he resorts to military action or threatens it. Such a strategy is shortsighted as it quickly burns through critical stockpiles and operations gone awry invite perceptions of decline.
Sole reliance on the United States as the guarantor of European security is equally as shortsighted. The United States has other priorities and how it fares in the Indo-Pacific will largely be incumbent upon its conduct and strategy. All this said, Babiš is not Orbán. He has had his faults, but he has come to the defense of Danish sovereignty. Europe has made strides in strategic arms through the utilization of French nuclear deterrence. It however can do more to integrate Czech defense manufacturers into its portfolio for strategic autonomy and by extension, keep Prague in its orbit. To be forward thinking, it can invest in things that will not only bolster its strategic autonomy, but also increase its influence. By increasing its influence in increasingly significant regions to international politics such as the Arctic and artificial intelligence that can detect nuclear proliferation, Europe can foster a more equitable world order. Power politics has returned to global politics whether Europe likes it or not.
Questions For Readers
- Can the Czech arms industry become a pillar for strategic autonomy?
- Can Babiš become a bridge between the EU and Trump?
- Can pursue its own interests by setting a pragmatic agenda?
Further Reading
Walt, Stephen. “The Predatory Hegemon How Trump Wields American Power”. Foreign Affairs, 2026.
Verseck, Keno. “Czech Republic: Who is Babis, the man who hopes to be PM?”. Deutsche Welle, 2025.
