The presidential election victory of Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan is a highly significant moment not only for Romania and Eastern Europe, but also for the future of the EU and NATO. The political and ideological struggle between the liberal mayor and the far-right candidate, George Simion, can be seen as part of the identity crisis of a post-communist country caught between the Western sphere of influence and those more authoritarian powers, between international engagement and isolationism. The election of a Pro-EU candidate, with a clear vision of an engaged Romania within Europe and NATO, symbolizes a number of opportunities for the EU and its partners. It particularly means stronger support for Ukraine, whose President Zelensky welcomed the election of Dan with relief, considering the key role Romania could play for the security of Ukraine and as an export route for Ukraine’s grain. These elections have captured the attention of many international political actors, particularly the U.S. and Russia, who both saw in the victory of either candidate a series of opportunities and threats for their own strategies.
Forces at Play in the Election
The latest Romanian elections took place in a context of political polarisation, mistrust, and fear of external interference. A major factor in the 2025 campaign was that of social media, particularly by Tiktok and Telegram, with disinformation actors being explicitly effective in sowing division and mistrust. Digital content spreading xenophobic, antisemitic, and anti-LGTBQ messages (such as the fake news stating candidate Dan planned to establish LGTBQ education for kindergarten children), as well as pro-Russian propaganda were spread, despite a lack of transparency and along with the partisan cooperation from the digital platforms.
After the annulment of the 2024 elections, and the ban of far-right candidate Calin Georgescu due to allegations of Russian interference in his favour, the political climate in Romania fell into further mistrust and resentment towards political elites, and internal divisions grew stronger. Georgescu was banned from running in the May 2025 campaign by Romania’s central election authority, a decision that triggered protests and indignation by domestic and external voices. Among Georgescu’s supporters one can number Italian politician and former General Roberto Vannacci, and support can be seen in the declarations of America’s Vice President J.D. Vance and former White House advisor Elon Musk, whose strong social media support in favour of Georgescu was defined as election interference by Romania’s Foreign Minister Emil Hurezeanu.
In such a climate characterised by discontent and scepticism for the public institutions, populist leader George Simion emerged as a symptom of social bitterness and feelings of betrayal and oppression, which have become common across many European countries in recent decades. Mr. Simion, the founder of the ultranationalist party Alliance for the Union of Romanians, boasts a background of nationalist political activism advocating for the union of Romania and Moldova, and the creation of the NGO coalition Acțiunea 2012. With his political advocacy for the unionist cause led the Moldovan authorities to declare him persona non grata in the territory of Moldova. In 2024, Simion was also banned from entering Ukraine following allegations of anti-Ukrainian positions. The politician responded by claiming that his activities were simply “pro-Romanian”.
Liberal and pro-EU mathematics professor Nicușor Dan represented a different political path. Campaigning specifically against corruption (a topic that was central in Dan’s previous experiences with the Save Bucharest Association” and the party “Save Romania Union) and promising to keep supporting Ukraine, even welcoming Kyiv into the EU. Dan defined support to Moldova and Ukraine against Russian threats as mandatory for the very security of Romania, committing to back the NATO 5% defence spending goal. Furthermore, unlike his opponent, who expressed very conservative and divisive social views, Dan expressed more moderate views, successfully presenting himself as an anti-populist and inclusive political figure, ideologically close to Western European democracies, leading to his surprise victory. EU Commission Ursula Von der Leyen has indeed congratulated the new president by stating that “Romanians have chosen the promise of an open, prosperous Romania in a strong Europe.”
However, the results still reflect a considerable polarisation within Romanian society. Beyond anti-establishment sentiments, social inequalities, a strong urban-rural economic divide, and the integration of ethnic minorities and Ukrainian refugees, large segments of the population do not trust the political and electoral process. According to INSCOP Research, half of Romanians believe the elections were unfairly organised, revealing a country whose population is still distant from its political leaders. Furthermore, it is likely that Dan’s parliament will be deeply influenced by the opposition that will be ready to take advantage of any possible crisis to slander the sitting government in front of the ever susceptible, domestic public opinion.
External perspectives and threats
Actors outside Romania have taken particular interest in these elections due to the geographical relevance of Romania for the Russia-West confrontation, as well as for the internal EU political struggle between pro-EU and nationalist political voices.
The American government was particularly active in observing and interacting with the political process in Romania. Beyond the open support by the Trump administration to Georgescu and Simion, it was notable to see that the second election process held in 2025 was monitored by a bipartisan US congressional delegation. This signals a keen American interest in the government of a country located in a highly strategic location. Romania is the bridge between Central Europe and Ukraine, and a key ally in controlling movements, resources and trade routes in the Black Sea. In fact, the Black Sea is vital for the U.S. and NATO not only to counteract any potential Russian naval strategy, but also due to the presence of many offshore gas fields, making it economically and strategically significant.
Furthermore, the U.S. has a symbolic interest in securing the transparency of the elections given the threats from both Russian and Chinese interference — considering the potential for TikTok as a tool for hybrid war. These operations would not only strengthen the American influence in the region, but also send a signal to Russia, Turkey, Serbia, and other regional actors that the U.S. is active and present in the region. Delegations, such as the ones that observed the Romanian 2025 elections, could present the U.S. as a stable partner in a period in which this major global power seems to be losing credibility in Europe.
Russia was also particularly interested in the outcome of the Romanian elections, as the victory of Simion would have also meant a potential victory for the Kremlin’s strategy in the region. Romania’s proximity to both Ukraine and Moldova — along with the strategic role of Transnistria as a Russian bastion — makes Romania a geopolitical actor to be continuously monitored by the Russian government. The geographical proximity to Ukraine and the long Black Sea coastline makes Romania an ideal location for NATO to contain or even strike Russian activities and operations.
Following the 2022 invasion, Romania has enhanced its position as a NATO member by functioning as a base for coordinated military training and by cooperating with NATO allies to serve as an anti-Russian bastion. A further increase of NATO troops on Romanian soil would represent a concerning scenario for Russia. For this reason, the victory of an isolationist candidate such as Simion would have guaranteed a more plateable scenario. The victory of Dan and his plan to increase the NATO defence budget represents a potential strategic defeat for the Russian interests in the Black Sea region. Further proof as such can be seen in Romania’s recent lead role in the NATO naval drills.
Conclusion
Despite the enthusiasm shared by pro-EU and NATO forces for the victory of Dan and the new path for Romania, some challenges remain to be solved. Romania does not yet hold enough sway to shape NATO strategies or EU policies. As far as military power is concerned, considerable personnel shortages, corruption scandals (notably at the Mihail Kogalniceanu NATO Base), equipment limitations, and cyber as well as hybrid threats (as demonstrated by how Russian forces were able to interrupt NATO Dacian Spring exercises) leave Romania as a weak shield for NATO. From a political viewpoint, Romania’s systemic corruption, public EU-skepticism and persistent perception as second-tier member by other EU countries (as in the Austrian veto against Romania joining the Schengen Area before 2025) represent obstacles for the new government to bring the country closer to Brussels and present it as a valuable partner for political and investment projects.
Romania is now entering a transition period that might lead to a deep change in the country’s position in Europe and in its geopolitical role. The new government will have the chance to enhance its role as a loyal ally within NATO and as a progressive voice within the EU’s internal debates, siding with liberal forces against nationalism and populism. However, the new government needs to be careful as far as domestic policies are concerned, as every step will be under severe monitoring by a fierce opposition and also a skeptical public opinion. A failure from Dan’s government to address issues such as corruption or anti-Ukrainian resentment might secure a solid victory for Simion or similar political voices in the future. In the current geopolitical scenario, Romania will face several challenges and only careful, coordinated decisions will strike a winning balance between domestic issues, the EU path, and NATO’ strategy.
3 questions:
- How can Dan improve Romania’s position in the EU and NATO?
- What future internal and external threats might Romania face in the near future?
- How can the U.S. or Russia make the best of the current political situation in Romania?
Recommended readings:
- “Veress, Csongor B. 2024. “Romania Political Briefing: Romania’s Strategic Role in European Security: Historical Foundations and Contemporary Relevance,” China–CEE Institute.
- Le Monde. 2025. “From east to west, the far right is rising in Europe.”
- Branea, Maria. 2025. “The Digital Trojan Horse in Romania’s Elections.” New Eastern Europe,
