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Election poster of the PSC-PSOE candidate, Salvador Illa, pasted over that of ERC, Pere Aragonès, the former president of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Source: El Mundo
The latest elections to the Parliament of Catalonia have been a key turning point in the Catalan and national political landscape. This is the first time that the Catalan parliament does not have a pro-independence majority. A left-wing bloc pact could give the presidency to the Socialist Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC), Salvador Illa. However, the negotiations will not be easy and once again Catalonia faces uncertainty.
Early elections… Desperate measures?
On 13 March, the then president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès (ERC), called early elections in Catalonia for 12 May after failing to pass the Generalitat’s budget bill for 2024. The approval of the last budget of the legislature required multiple pacts that the Govern was unable to achieve. They reached an agreement with the head of the opposition from PSC, Salvador Illa, and En Comú Podem. However, the disagreement arose with the macro-complex Hard Rock project, which has prevented En Comú Podem from giving their support.
Pere Aragonès, President of the Generalitat in his appearance informing of the early elections. Source: Diari Ara
In his institutional declaration, Pere Aragonés declared that “Catalonia will choose between responsibility and irresponsibility, between those who defend a model of the past and those who defend Catalonia everywhere, looking to the future”. He assured that the early elections will allow Catalonia to have a Government “with much more strength to continue advancing and accelerating the transformations, without depending on the immobilists“.
Who is who in the Catalan political landscape?
Catalonia has a diverse political scene with a wide range of political parties. The big national parties belonging to the main ideological families – socialists, democrats, and Christian Democrats – have representation in the region. However, the regional parties have recently dictated a political agenda marked by independence and the call for a referendum on self-determination. The main political parties in this latest elections are:
- Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (Socialists’ Party of Catalonia, PSC-PSOE). Its candidate, Salvador Illa, is a well-known figure in Spain because he was the Minister of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Afterwards, he left national politics to be a candidate for the 2021 regional elections.
- Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia, Junts). Junts candidate was Carles Puigdemont. The former president of the Generalitat during the notorious procés (2016-2017) who currently resides in Brussels avoiding judicial procedures against independentist leaders.
- Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Republican Left of Catalonia, ERC). The president, Pere Aragonés, leads this organization.
- Partido Popular (People’s Party of Catalonia, PP). Its candidate Alejandro Fernández had poor results in the last elections in this regard he said “the party hits rock bottom“. The main opposition party at the national level was poorly represented in Catalonia with three seats.
- Vox. Ignacio Garriga, secretary general and vice-president of Vox, repeated as candidate in Catalonia.
- Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (Popular Unity Candidacy, CUP). Laia Estrada represented this party belonging to the Independent Left ideology.
- Comuns-Sumar (Commons Unite). It is an electoral coalition to contest this election and is made up of the political parties Catalunya en Comú, Barcelona en Comú, and Movimiento Sumar. The head of its candidature was Jéssica Albiach.
- Aliança Catalana (Catalan Alliance). This is a new party on the Catalan scene led by Silvia Orriols. The party identifies with the far-right wing and with islamophobic and pro-independence positions.
- Ciudadanos (Citizens, C’s). The party that originated in Catalonia and made the leap to national politics with great success found itself struggling not to disappear from the political map of the community. Carlos Carrizosa headed this political project.
Source: Onda Cero
Results of the elections
In a nutshell, independents lost this election. The decline of ERC, which now holds 20 seats, and the slight improvement of Junts (35), lacks the arithmetic to lead an independent government. The PSC found success as the most voted party. Salvador Illa won for the second time in a row to become the leading force in Parliament. He obtains 42 seats and improves the 33 seats of the 2021 elections. However, the PSC will need pacts to win the presidency of the Generalitat. This will not be easy for Salvador Illa because he needs the support of ERC and the Comuns to be able to govern. The candidate for Junts, Carles Puigdemont, won 35 seats, three more than in the last elections. This means that he is ahead of ERC in the battle to lead the pro-independence movement. ERC has fallen to third place after three years at the head of the Government with 20 seats, compared to the 33 seats obtained in 2021. Nevertheless, they will be key to governability.
The rise of the Partido Popular (PP) is noteworthy; this has led to the disappearance of Ciudadanos -it has lost its 6 deputies-. The PP won 15 seats compared to 3 seats in 2021. It managed to overtake Vox, which is in fourth position, securing the 11 seats obtained in the previous elections. Finally, the CUP lost more than half of its support, winning 4 seats compared to its 9 members. The situation is similar for Comuns-Sumar, whose results have worsened from 8 seats to 6. Surprisingly, Silvia Orriols’ Aliança Catalana broke into Parliament with 2 seats.
Distribution of seats in the 2024 elections and comparison with previous elections. Source: author’s adaptation of Onda Cero
Since the elections, uncertainty continues regarding who will become President of the Generalitat. On 10 June, the members of the Parliament elected Josep Rull (Junts) as president of the chamber. The Bureau of the Catalan Parliament has a pro-independence majority (four of the seven members). This distribution could give priority to an investiture attempt by Carles Puigdemont. The PSC maintains that its chances of reaching the Government remain intact and sees the composition of the Bureau as a minor setback to achieving the presidency.
Conclusion
The elections in Catalonia have opened up a new horizon for the region. Catalan’s politics has been very turbulent since the famous pro-independence process began in 2012 and the population has grown weary. The Catalans’ problems do not go through a referendum on independence. Education, health, infrastructure… This is what the Catalans want to hear. The dreams of independence seem to have been pricked by the needle of reality.
For further thought:
- Is the issue of independence still a significant concern for Catalan voters today?
- Has Catalonia’s quest for independence become an unattainable dream?
- Why does the left-wing independence movement seem to be more critical of its own parties compared to the right-wing?
Suggested readings:
- CIDOB (2015) Historical overview about Catalanism and modern self-government, CIDOB.
- Galasso, Vincenzo (2022) The Cost of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from Catalonia, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, pp. 250-259.
- Karlsson, Hilma (2019) The rise of secessionism in Catalonia. A study of the shift in nationalist discourse from an identity perspective, Lund University -Department of Political Science.
