Regime Resilience and the Limits of Coercion: Three Scenarios for the Iran War

This analysis maps three scenarios for the US-Israeli war on Iran — frozen attrition, structural escalation, and regime change — evaluated along three axes: IRGC resilience, the limits of coercive strategy, and the fractures emerging within the Western alliance architecture.

How Many Retaliations Create A War? Israel And Iran’s Deterrence Dilemma

Israel has carried out a military strike on Iran in response to Tehran’s attack last Saturday. While no material damage seems to have occurred, this mutual show of force that prioritizes war deterrence over de-escalation increases dramatically the level of tension in the region.