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In April, the Mexican government’s announcement regarding the reintroduction of visa requirements for Peruvian citizens intending to enter Mexican territory made headlines. This measure marks a reinstatement after the requirement was eliminated in 2012. Since then, Mexico has seen a steady increase in the number of Peruvian citizens who, upon arriving in the country, head towards the northern border with the United States.
Indeed, the figures reported by the Mexican Interior Ministry are significant. From 2021 to 2023, over 35,833 cases of denial of entry for Peruvian citizens were recorded at admission points, most due to inconsistencies in the purpose of travel. During the same period, more than 143,933 cases of people crossing the border irregularly from Mexico to a third country were identified, along with 7,053 cases of Peruvian citizens presenting themselves to immigration authorities without demonstrating their status as regular immigrants in the country.
Even more striking are the figures related to the overall number of Peruvian citizens who left the country in the past two years. In 2022, there were 401,740 departures, almost four times the number recorded in 2021, more than in any year since 1990. However, the number is expected to grow as the latest available data shows. In the first half of 2023, another 400,000 Peruvians left, some headed to European destinations like Spain and Italy, others to Mexico and its northern border with the United States. Some succeed in crossing the border illegally, with an increasing number as demonstrated by data from US Customs and Border Protection, which reported 78,202 encounters with Peruvian citizens at the US-Mexico border in the fiscal year 2023, a 47% increase compared to 2022.
Congress’s controversial moves driving Peru’s exodus
The factors driving migration are obviously multiple in the Peruvian case, linked to organized crime and thus to the insecurity tied to the expansion of criminal groups like the Tren de Aragua, a sluggish and even contracting economy, and perhaps most importantly, the erosion of the rule of law and democracy, the most precious asset. Regarding the latter, in the past year and a half, Peru has been governed by a coalition diverse in ideological terms, sharing probably only their strong unpopularity, with Prime Minister Dina Boluarte registering an approval rating of just 5%, making her the most unpopular president of Peru in the last 44 years. But what is this due to? The answer lies in the coalition itself that governs the country and the congressional maneuvers aimed at ensuring the coalition and its leaders remain firmly in power. Among the most unpopular measures is likely the approval last March of amendments to 58 articles of the 1993 constitution. The most significant change resulting from this reform is the transformation of the unicameral Congress into a bicameral one by reinstating a 60-member Chamber of Senators to function alongside a 130-member Chamber of Deputies (Art. 90). Presidential candidates may now simultaneously run for senator or deputy. Moreover, senators and deputies may now seek immediate re-election to the same position without term limits. The legislators intended this as a side effect to concentrate power at the congressional level at the expense of the executive, which will be essentially controlled by the former. This reform seems even more out of place considering that in a 2018 referendum, more than 90 % of Peruvian voters rejected bicameralism and 85% opposed the immediate re-election of congressmen.
Another highly unpopular measure approved by Congress, also in March, is the repeal of legislative decree 1607, aimed at combating illegal mining. The decision sparked strong criticism, as the decree sought to formalize mining activities and distinguish between legal and illegal miners. The suspension of the decree, made without the usual review, would facilitate illegal mining activities, damaging ecosystems and limiting police action against the illegal use of explosives in mines. Illegal mining linked to informal mines is a booming industry in Peru, allowing criminal groups present in the territory to enrich themselves, expand, and especially organize, as demonstrated by some attacks on a police convoy by gold miners’ gangs in the Peruvian province of La Libertad.
A path forward for a brighter future
The future at this moment seems far from rosy for Peruvian democracy and its citizens forced to emigrate from their land, leaving behind a country where they would like to build their future. However, it is time to question what should be done to avoid the definitive erosion of democracy in the country. It is imperative to undertake a path of deep reforms to regenerate a political system now devoid of legitimacy and incapable of serving as a relief valve for an increasingly polarized and disillusioned society. In particular, international efforts should focus on ensuring free and fair elections in 2026, paying particular attention to the selection process of new electoral authorities. Even modest international attention can make a difference, especially if accompanied by financial and technical support to civil society promoting dialogue among various social sectors.
Foreign powers should also pressure the government to respect the recommendations of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights and other human rights organizations. It is essential to dissuade Peruvian authorities from launching new attacks on the autonomy of democratic institutions, such as the National Justice Council and the National Electoral Jury, as undermining the independence of these institutions would severely damage the credibility of future elections and the legitimacy of the judicial system.
Only through inclusive dialogue and the willingness to undertake deep political and constitutional reforms can polarization be addressed, and party fragmentation ended. The polarization between increasingly radical versions of the right and left requires a concerted effort to create common ground, outlining reforms that can be adopted by elected representatives before the next elections. The current government must recognize the urgency of these reforms, necessary to rebuild the legitimacy and stability of the Peruvian political system, preventing the country from plunging into a new and more violent political and social crisis.
Questions:
- Civil society in Peru doesn’t seem to have a clear leadership or a political party representing it in Congress. Can it still play a significant role in strengthening democracy and promoting reforms? If so, how?
- What potential strategies could the international community adopt to foster political reform in Peru?
- What measures could be taken to strengthen Peru’s political institutions and prevent the recurrence of governance crises similar to those experienced in the recent past?
Suggested readings:
“Unrest on Repeat: Plotting a Route to Stability in Peru”. Crisis Group, February 8, 2024.
“Peru’s Next Generation of Leaders Is Leaving”. Americas Quarterly, November 8, 2023.
“Peru’s Economy Faces A Challenging Outlook In 2024”. Forbes, April 2, 2024.
