![[ARTICLE] The First Steps of the Transition Government in Syria: The Beginning of a New Era?](https://i0.wp.com/thenewglobalorder.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Syria-1.jpg?resize=704%2C200&ssl=1)
The Beginning of the Civil War in Syria
The Assad regime has fallen after 54 years of rule. Established by Hafez al-Assad in 1970, it led during one of the bloodiest civil wars in modern history. The conflict began in the wake of the Arab Spring that swept across the region that same year. The spark of war is identified in the anti-government graffiti painted on a school wall in the southern city of Daraa by 15 school children. The defiant phrase ‘It’s your turn now, Doctor” triggered an escalation of state violence against its populace. Residents of Daraa staged protests demanding the release of their children, to whom the security forces reacted with overwhelming force, leading to widespread violence and mass arrests. This marked the beginning of the Syrian Civil War.
The conflict caused such a staggering number of casualties that, after the death toll exceeded 500,000, the United Nations stopped keeping an official count. The regime even used chemical weapons against the population, leading to international sanctions that remain in place to this day. Additionally, approximately six million Syrians were forced to seek refuge, with most fleeing to Turkey, neighboring countries, and Europe. The protesters, initially secular and pro-democracy, were gradually absorbed into Islamist and jihadist groups.
The Frozen War
The Jihadist factions conquered significant regions of the country. The regime’s weakened control over the country called for assistance from external actors. Assad relied on the assistance of Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia as staunch supporters of the regime. Thanks to their involvement, the regime was able to hold power for 53 years.
With assistance, Assad re-established control over the majority of the country, including the main cities along the coast. However, other regions were out of his rule. In the North, the Idlib region became an enclave for the rebel faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the party responsible for the takeover of the regime in December. In the North-East, the Kurdish forces maintained semi-autonomy, along with the Alawites in the South of Damascus. As Assad re-established control, analysts suggested that the Syrian Civil War was “winding down.”
The “Frozen War” reawakened with the erosion of foreign support. With Russia engaged in its invasion of Ukraine since February 2022, and Iran and Hezbollah – Iran’s unofficial armed wing – involved in the war in Gaza after the October 7, 2023 attack, the regime lost its main allies. Prevailing opinions pointed to potential escalations in Syria, a prediction that came true on December 5, 2024, when rebel groups entered Aleppo, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia.
The Takeover of Aleppo
The offensive was led by an alliance of armed groups under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, at the head of the HTS, “the organization for the liberation of the Levant.” It was initially conceived as a jihadist group affiliated to the Islamic State. To avoid international retaliation, they adopted the name of Jabhat al-Nusra. In 2013, HTS officially split from the Islamic State. It adopted a more pragmatic approach that focused on overthrowing the Assad regime and fostering relations with neighboring regions. The new transitional government also advocates for a new era of tolerance towards all the ethnic groups in the country – Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, Christians, Druze, Alawite Shia, and Arab Sunnis.
Rebel forces aimed at pushing Assad’s front line further away from their territory. After months of intensified attacks, as soon as the two factions clashed, the Syrian army disbanded. Rebel groups entered Aleppo in the morning, and, without firefights, occupied strategic positions in the city. Over the years, loyalty to Assad faded away.
The Country’s Recovery and International Sanctions
The transitional government, formed right after the regime’s fall, is led by Mohammed al-Bashir, prior administrator of the city of Idilib. It faces a host of challenges ahead. Syria faces a dire economic crisis, compounded by the civil war, the 2023 earthquake, and international sanctions imposed on the fallen regime; nearly 90% of the population lives in poverty. After Assad’s brutal crackdown on protests in 2011, the US and EU interrupted diplomatic ties with Damascus, restricted trade and investments, blocked imported oil flows, and froze central Syrian central bank assets.
Ahmad al-Sharaa called for states to lift sanctions, which are an obstacle to the recovery. After discussions in Brussels, on 20 May 2025, the EU withdrew its economic restrictive measures. Trump also ended US sanctions against Syria on 1 July 2025. Nonetheless, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, EU, and UK.
Internal Turmoil and the Legacy of Sectarian Tensions
Shaara has engaged in efforts to build a peaceful coexistence. He welcomed Christian and Druze leaders, and granted Sunni militias control of local regions. However, some concerns rise about Shaara’s past as a former al-Qaeda leader in Syria, and the lack of promised representation in the new ad interim government. His top military and security posts are filled with fellow Salafis, a puritanical brand of Sunni Islam.
Since the fall of the regime, Alawites – a large religious minority group in Syria that controlled power during Assad regime – started fearing reprisal. Those who served in the military are reported to have fled the country.
On 6 March, army officers from the former regime led co-ordinated attacks on the new security forces. According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), the former regimes forces killed at least 446 civilians, and more than 170 government security forces.
These events resurrected deep-seated anger over the former dictatorship, resulting in armed factions with ties to the new government carrying out revenge killings against the Alawites in the days following the attack. Government forces battled them to protect the population. Nonetheless, 889 civilians were killed, including 114 children and women. Turkish-backed militia and jihadist fighters – who supported HTS in removing Assad – are believed to also be responsible for carrying out summary executions.
The interim government has formed a committee to investigate the killings. According to the BBC, around 30 people were arrested.
The Druze Community and External Influences
In May, clashes to the South of Damascus also occurred between fighters of the armed factions and the Druze religious minority. Clashes erupted suddenly because of social media attributing an audio recording of a man insulting the Prophet Muhammad to a Druze cleric. Around 101 people were killed.
The response of Israel did not wait. Since the fall of Assad, Israeli warplanes have carried out airstrikes across Syria. While Syria’s new regime and Turkey have condemned the attack, Benjamin Netanyahu claimed these strikes are in defense of the Druze community. Since the fall of Assad, Israel has increased its interference in the country, seizing land in the south of Syria beyond the Golan Heights.
Concluding thoughts
The events of the last six months continue to disturb Syrian unification and stabilization. While Shaara pledged to build a legal framework that protects the rights of all Syrians, the legacy of of sectarian tensions give reason to doubt the regime’s ability to control all the factions. Ongoing tension risks reigniting deep-seated grievances, with long-term consequences for national cohesion. Moreover, ongoing threats to civilians also risk jeopardizing restored diplomatic ties, essential for the country’s recovery.
Questions:
- Given the close ties between the ad interim government and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which remains designated as a terrorist organization, how can the new leadership ensure a credible and democratic transition?
- How is Turkey likely to respond to the transitional government’s decision to include the YPG, which it designates as a terrorist group, in the Syrian National Army?
- What will be the role of Abu Mohammed al-Golani in the ad interim government and democratic transition? Will his past leadership of HTS and its jihadist roots limit his influence and legitimacy?
Suggestions:
- Center for Preventive Action. Conflict in Syria. CFR Global Conflict Tracker. Last modified 14 May 2025.
- Oliker, Olga, Elissa Jobson, and Berkay Mandıracı. After Assad – Implications for Türkiye in Syria and Beyond. International Crisis Group. 27 February 2025.
- Raineri, Daniele. Dentro alla prigione di Sednaya. Il Post. 15 December 2024.
