María José is a Political Scientist specializedin International Relations & Democratic Governance. She is passionate about driving positive change through a deep understanding of global dynamics and policy frameworks. María is highly interested in international cooperation, foreign policy, geopolitics, political communication and marketing, sustainable development, and public policy.
An armored vehicle and military police form outside the government palace in what President Luis Arce said was an attempted coup, at Plaza Murillo in La Paz, Bolivia, Wednesday, June 26, 2024. Source (AP Photo/Juan Karita)
In June 2024, Bolivia faced a dramatic coup attempt led by General Juan José Zúñiga, targeting President Luis Arce. This incident starkly highlighted the deep-seated political and economic tensions that have been brewing in the country. The coup attempt, which Arce’s supporters branded as a direct assault on democratic governance, was met with a contrasting perspective from former President Evo Morales, who labeled it an “auto-golpe” or self-coup, reflecting the polarized interpretations of the event.
General Zúñiga, who was rumored to be on the verge of dismissal, led a faction within the military in a brief and chaotic struggle for power. The coup attempt, however, failed to gather significant support from other military factions or opposition forces and was quickly subdued within hours. This rapid collapse left many observers questioning the motivations and authenticity of the attempt, with some speculating that it might have been a strategic move by Arce to consolidate his own position amidst declining approval ratings.
The Controversy Surrounding the Events: Conflicting Narratives and Speculations
The failed coup attempt was marked by confusion and conflicting narratives. General Zúñiga’s faction managed to seize control of key military installations temporarily but struggled to secure broader support. The operation was chaotic, with unclear objectives and a lack of coordination among the coup plotters. The swift response from loyalist forces and the absence of significant backing for the coup contributed to its rapid failure. In the aftermath, various interpretations emerged since General Zúñiga claimed that:
Supporters of President Luis Arce chase soldiers as they flee from Plaza Murillo, after a failed coup attempt in La Paz, Bolivia, Wednesday, June 26, 2024. Armored vehicles rammed into the doors of Bolivia’s government palace located in Plaza Murillo as Arce said the country faced an attempted coup. Source (AP Photo/Juan Karita)
Bolivia’s History with Coups
Bolivia’s history is marked by frequent political instability and military interventions. Since gaining independence in 1825, Bolivia has experienced nearly 40 coup attempts or successful coups. The period between 1964 and 1982 was particularly turbulent, characterized by a succession of military regimes that ruled with varying degrees of repression and instability.
The country transitioned back to democratic governance in 1982, and during the subsequent four decades, Bolivia managed to maintain relative stability in terms of democratic processes, albeit with significant political challenges. This era of stability was briefly interrupted by the 2019 political crisis but was notably marked by an absence of violent military coups until the recent 2024 attempt.
The 2019 Crisis and Electoral Fraud Allegations
The events of 2019 were pivotal in setting the stage for Bolivia’s current political climate. Evo Morales, who had been in power since 2006, faced growing controversy over his bid for a fourth term. Despite a 2016 referendum in which Bolivians voted against lifting presidential term limits, Morales decided to run for re-election, citing a court ruling that allowed him to do so.
The October 2019 election results, initially showing Morales securing a fourth term, were marred by allegations of electoral fraud. The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit and reported significant irregularities, leading to widespread protests and calls for Morales’ resignation. The report’s findings, combined with a suspicious pause in vote counting, fueled accusations of fraud.
Under immense pressure, Morales resigned and fled to Mexico, denouncing the events as a coup. His departure created a power vacuum, which was filled by Jeanine Áñez, a right-wing senator who assumed the interim presidency. Morales’ supporters and several international observers denounced Áñez’s rise to power as illegitimate, exacerbating the political divide and contributing to Bolivia’s ongoing instability.
People carry a placard depicting Bolivian President Evo Morales with red horns during a protest march in La Paz, Bolivia, Oct. 26, 2019. Source (VOA)
Economic Turbulence: From Growth Under Morales to Crisis and Inequality Under Arce
However, economic conditions began to deteriorate around 2014, following a decline in global commodity prices. The COVID-19 pandemic further strained Bolivia’s economy, compounding existing financial challenges. By the time Luis Arce assumed office in 2020, Bolivia was grappling with a severe economic downturn marked by high inflation, a shortage of US dollars, and declining natural gas production.
Navigating Internal Divisions: Morales’ Role in the MAS Party and Its Implications for Bolivia’s Political Future
Evo Morales remains a highly influential and polarizing figure in Bolivian politics. His return to Bolivia after the 2019 crisis was marked by both renewed support and significant controversy. Morales continues to wield considerable influence through his leadership of the MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo) party and his connections with social movements, particularly the cocaleros (coca growers).
Morales’ criticism of Luis Arce and his attempts to mobilize political support have exacerbated internal divisions within MAS. The factional split between “evistas” (Morales’ supporters) and “arcistas” (Arce’s supporters) has complicated party unity and governance. Morales’ potential candidacy for the 2025 elections adds another layer of tension, challenging Arce’s leadership and further dividing the party.
The deteriorating relationship between Morales and Arce reflects broader tensions within Bolivia’s political system. While Morales continues to advocate for social and economic policies that align with his legacy, Arce has pursued a more pragmatic approach focused on economic stabilization. This divergence in political strategies has fueled internal conflicts and weakened the MAS party’s ability to address Bolivia’s pressing issues effectively.
The tensions between Arce and Morales have been a central issue in Bolivia’s political landscape. Arce’s administration has struggled to reconcile the differing priorities within MAS and address the economic crisis effectively. The failed coup attempt in June 2024 has further strained Arce’s position, as the administration seeks to navigate both internal party conflicts and external political pressures.
Arce has used the coup attempt to bolster his position, presenting himself as a defender of democracy against destabilizing forces. However, his ability to capitalize on this situation is limited by ongoing economic challenges and criticism from opposition groups. The effectiveness of Arce’s leadership and his administration’s ability to address Bolivia’s economic and social issues will be crucial in determining the country’s future stability.
El presidente de Bolivia, Luis Arce, saluda junto a su gabinete desde un balcón en la Plaza Murillo de La Paz. Source (Luis Gandarillas/EFE. El Diario AR)
Bolivia’s Path to Stability: Grappling with Political and Economic Uncertainties Ahead of the 2025 Elections
The failed coup attempt in June 2024 has exposed deep fractures within Bolivia’s political landscape and raised critical questions about the future trajectory of the country. The internal divisions within MAS and the broader political instability underscore the challenges facing Bolivia as it approaches the 2025 elections.
The political rivalry between Arce and Morales, combined with the economic hardships confronting the country, suggests a turbulent road ahead. The internal conflicts within MAS and the weakened position of Arce’s administration create opportunities for opposition forces to exploit divisions and potentially regain power.
Giacomo Finzi speculates that if internal rivalries within the MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo) are not resolved, Bolivia might face a situation where both Luis Arce and Evo Morales contend for the presidency in the 2025 elections. This double candidacy could potentially open the door for the right-wing opposition to regain power. Finzi also highlights the significant impact of the recent coup attempt on Arce’s political standing, suggesting that it has severely undermined his position and weakened his leadership.
As Bolivia moves towards the 2025 elections, the ability of MAS to reconcile internal differences and address economic challenges will be crucial. The failed coup attempt highlights the need for effective governance and political unity to ensure the stability and prosperity of the nation. Addressing the economic crisis, managing political tensions, and maintaining democratic institutions will be essential for Bolivia’s future trajectory.
In conclusion, Bolivia’s political and economic landscape remains complex and fraught with challenges. The failed coup attempt serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing instability and the urgent need for effective leadership and governance. As the country navigates its path toward the 2025 elections, resolving internal conflicts, addressing economic issues, and reinforcing democratic institutions will be key to ensuring Bolivia’s stability and progress.
Questions
What role might younger generations and new political movements play in shaping Bolivia’s future political and social landscape?
What steps can be taken to rebuild public trust in Bolivia’s democratic institutions in the wake of the failed coup attempt and ongoing political tensions?
Will President Arce run for a reelection and, if so what are the implications of a potential double candidacy of Luis Arce and Evo Morales for the MAS party and the broader Bolivian political landscape?
María José is a 25-year-old trilingual Political Scientist specialized in International Relations & Democratic Governance. She is passionate about driving positive change through a deep understanding of global dynamics and policy frameworks. María is highly interested in international cooperation, foreign policy, geopolitics, political communication and marketing, sustainable development, and public policy. During her free time, she loves watching F1, cycling, traveling and spending time on social media.
Great analysis, María José! Your deep dive into Bolivia’s political complexities provides essential context and sheds light on the intricacies of Arce’s position and the MAS party’s internal challenges. Insightful and thought-provoking!
Great analysis, María José! Your deep dive into Bolivia’s political complexities provides essential context and sheds light on the intricacies of Arce’s position and the MAS party’s internal challenges. Insightful and thought-provoking!