Source: Tânia Rêgo/Agência Brasil.
In Brazil, voting is mandatory for most of the adult population, being optional only for young people aged 16 to 17, people over 70, and illiterate individuals. Even so, between 2014 and 2024, the abstention rate in elections showed a growth trend, reaching 29.26% in the second round of the 2024 elections, according to data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). This was the highest abstention rate since the 2000 elections. In the first round of the 2024 elections, about 33.8 million Brazilians did not vote, representing 21.71% of the total eligible voters. Given this scenario, in a press conference, the president of the TSE, Minister Cármen Lúcia, stated that abstention should be studied so that there is a reduction in the next elections.
Voting is one of the pillars of any democracy. Even the most simplistic democratic theories, such as those defended by Schumpeter, recognize the importance of voting as an instrument for citizens to participate in choosing their representatives and defining the political direction of a society. Thus, voting is seen by many not only as a right but also as an essential civic duty for the legitimacy of democratic institutions and the maintenance of political order. Without popular participation—often exercised solely through voting—power may cease to reflect the collective will, losing its legitimacy in the eyes of the governed. Brazil, with its long tradition of compulsory voting, stands out for having a participation rate that, at first glance, would seem guaranteed by legal requirements. However, data collected over recent electoral cycles show the reality is much more complex. Even with compulsory voting, various social, economic, and institutional factors contribute to abstention, raising questions about the effectiveness of the mandatory voting system and how certain social groups are excluded from this process.
To better understand these factors, we conducted a statistical analysis using data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), complemented by data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which included a linear regression to identify the most influential variables affecting voter turnout rates. This analysis allowed us to observe patterns and highlight the characteristics contributing to voter participation or abstention.
Factors that Influence Electoral Participation
The data show that age group is one of the main determinants of participation. Young people aged 16 to 18, who have optional voting, surprisingly show a turnout rate higher than that of older age groups who are required to vote. This may reflect an initial sense of civic responsibility and a greater interest in change. However, this behavior does not hold up over the years. The participation rate drops drastically after the age of 25, with indications that disillusionment with politics and lack of representation among candidates contribute to the disengagement of young adults. Meanwhile, those over 70, also exempt from voting, seem to have the highest tendency toward abstention.
Another relevant factor is related to the marital status of voters. Married or widowed people tend to participate more than single or divorced individuals, suggesting that family structure may significantly influence the decision to vote. This difference may be attributed to the support of spouses and family members who often create an atmosphere of encouragement and collective responsibility. Among voters who live alone, the phenomenon of diffusion of responsibility may come into play, leading to the feeling that their participation will have little impact on the outcome.
Education level proves to be an essential factor in explaining abstention rates. Voters with lower education levels are more likely to abstain, partly reflecting a lack of access to quality information about the electoral process, candidates, and proposals. Additionally, practical barriers, such as difficulty accessing transportation to polling places and lack of flexibility at work, hinder participation. On the other hand, voters with high school and higher education are more likely to vote, possibly due to broader access to information and a better understanding of the political impact of their vote.
Significant differences were also observed in participation based on urban hierarchy. Voters in local and sub-regional centers demonstrated higher engagement than those in large metropolitan areas. This result suggests that, in smaller cities, there is a greater sense of connection with the candidates, and the effects of local policies are perceived more directly. In contrast, in large cities, social fragmentation and symbolic detachment from representatives seem to discourage participation.
GDP per capita also proved to be an important variable in analyzing voter turnout. The wealthier regions of Brazil tend to have lower abstention rates, which can be explained by better economic conditions that allow greater access to information about the electoral process and reduce logistical barriers, such as transportation to polling stations. Conversely, economically disadvantaged regions face challenges that hinder participation, including inadequate infrastructure and less access to public policies that promote citizen inclusion.
Possible Solutions to Reduce Abstention
These analyses point to an urgent need to devise strategies that not only ensure access to the electoral process but also promote greater engagement, especially among historically underrepresented groups. Improving access to information, reducing logistical barriers, and developing educational campaigns that strengthen trust in the electoral system are some measures that could help reverse the abstention scenario in the country. Brazilian democracy must be strengthened by citizen participation, which requires all sectors of society to feel motivated and empowered to exercise their right to vote.
Further Questions
- How can abstention be reduced?
- Is compulsory voting an effective measure to increase engagement?
- What is the impact of social networks and new technologies on electoral participation?
Suggested Readings
Padmanabhan, L. (2015, July 20). Should voting (or actively abstaining) be compulsory? BBC News.
