Over the past years, authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have devised unforeseen tactics and strategies to maintain their grip on power, despite expressions of dissent and discontent. More than a decade after the Arab Spring, issues including political corruption, economic disparity, and restricted liberties are remarkably similar to those that initially provoked revolutions in the region. Nowadays, and more than ever before, regimes are readily able to monitor and stifle resistance, particularly due to the availability of cutting-edge surveillance devices and censorship capabilities. The tenacity of youth activism, however, raises the question of whether such protests will recur and whether attempts to bring about political change could be effective today.
The Arab World has long sparked the interest of political researchers and analysts, particularly scholars examining patterns of authoritarianism in the MENA region. For a majority of experts, however, it is possible to trace back the current political climate in the region to a landmark series of events: the 2011 Arab Uprisings, commonly referred to as the ‘Arab Spring’. While the protests were once hailed as a pioneering attempt to achieve democracy and overthrow repressive regimes in the MENA region, it is important to mention that such efforts did not fully succeed in dismantling patterns of repression in several countries. Instead, over the years, authoritarian governments have devised even more advanced strategies to suppress dissent and maintain their grip on power – some of these strategies will be explored in what follows.
Why has the ‘Arab Spring’ garnered such prominence, and how did it start?
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the ‘Arab Spring’ was its rapid emergence and widespread influence, which ignited what can only be described as a ‘domino effect’ across the region. Initially perceived as isolated acts of opposition against individual regimes, the movement quickly transformed into a sweeping wave of protests, as dissatisfaction with totalitarian governments rippled through countries such as Egypt, Syria, Libya, Bahrain, and Yemen.
As for its origins, the series of revolts saw the light of day with Mohamed Bouazizi, a young Tunisian vegetable vendor. A victim of police harassment and a regime ridden with rampant corruption and poverty, Bouazizi set himself ablaze, triggering widespread local protests that called for the resignation of the country’s President, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. These protests successfully culminated in the ousting of Ben Ali. However, while Tunisia’s uprising was seen as a monumental victory, the momentum of change that followed was not as effective or lasting in other countries, with regimes in places like Egypt and Syria proving far more resistant.
The Aftermath: Recurrent Repression Patterns
Almost a decade after the Arab Spring, the political situation in the MENA region remains extremely volatile, with heightened governmental restrictions on freedom of expression in numerous countries. Recognizing the power that social media platforms hold in exposing truths, authoritarian governments have systematically focused on redesigning the internet as a tool for stifling dissent rather than for enabling its expression.
A common method implemented by such regimes involves the use of transnational repression strategies—a state-led initiative to control exiled activists through cyber surveillance, threats, intimidation, and even violence. Said oppressive governments have even used embassies and consulates as “satellite stations,” where officials monitor citizens, impose restrictions on consular services, and occasionally exploit the presence of dissidents’ families abroad as leverage. Over the past years, global concern has increased due to the development of advanced technologies and their recurrent exploitation by specific regimes.
On October 2, 2018, for example, the murder of Saudi journalist and columnist Jamal Khashoggi shook the world, raising concerns about the lengths that governments would go to silence dissidents. Prior to Khashoggi’s murder, Citizen Lab, a Canadian research team, found out that Saudi Arabia had been monitoring Khashoggi’s acquaintances with Pegasus, a potent spyware program developed by NSO Group. As per the Pegasus Project, a collaborative initiative with Amnesty International’s Security Lab, the spyware program works using “zero-click attacks”. In other words, while common malware requires specific action from users – such as clicking on suspicious links or emails – Pegasus does not require any user interaction. Additionally, its complex functionalities allow for it to monitor calls, track the user’s location, access the device’s camera and microphone, as well as save passwords and various data.
Among the individuals monitored was Omar Abdulaziz, a Saudi activist and outspoken opponent of the Saudi regime who lived in Montreal. Together, Abdulaziz and Khashoggi were developing a social media initiative known as the “Bee Army,” which sought to thwart Saudi-sponsored accounts that supported the state and disparaged its opponents.
Moreover, countries like the UAE and Jordan implement expansive cybercrime and anti-terrorism legislation to stifle internet activism and criticism, frequently citing national security as an excuse for judicial action.
For instance, the Federal Decree-Law No. 5, created to combat cybercrime, is used in the United Arab Emirates to suppress internet speech and criminalize opposition using vague definitions such as “unlawful content.” Essentially, posts that criticize government allies or contain information deemed to challenge official authority are often considered acts of rebellion. Due to the expansive wording of this statute, severe penalties, such as life imprisonment, have been imposed, for championing political change or large fines for harming the UAE’s reputation. A well-known case is Ahmed Mansoor, an Emirati activist, who was notably targeted for his online support of human rights reform. He was arrested in 2017, kept in solitary confinement at Al Wathba prison, and given a ten-year sentence on imprecise charges pertaining to his activism, including “insulting” the UAE and harming its “reputation abroad.” Concerns over Mansoor’s treatment and the harsh conditions of his confinement prompted several UN experts to urge his release, drawing attention to his arrest on a global scale. Despite worldwide censure and global hunger strikes, Mansoor is still behind bars, exemplifying how the UAE uses anti-terror and cyber laws to stifle dissent and regulate online speech.
Similarly, Jordan’s Anti-terrorist Law No. 55 gives police the authority to detain individuals over social media that is said to inspire “terrorism” or jeopardize international relations. Because of its ambiguity, which permits massive censorship, this rule has been used to arrest civilians, journalists, and activists for discussing sensitive political subjects.
The Factors Affecting the Arab Spring: Then and Now
The possibility of the re-emergence of a wave of upheavals in the MENA region can be largely determined by analyzing the factors present in the original Arab Spring and comparing them to current ones. Some major key factors behind the previous series of revolts include economic instability, a corrupt political system, limited freedoms, as well as youth disenfranchisement.
In Egypt, for example, Hosni Mubarak’s elite-dominated political system and lack of economic opportunity infuriated young Egyptians. The youth-led revolutions forced Mubarak to resign in February 2011, but despite hopes for democratic improvements, political disillusionment heightened with the ascent of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who restored an authoritarian climate reminiscent of the pre-Arab Spring era. Corruption in the administration and prevalent economic inequality were also factors in Libya’s involvement in the Arab Spring. The concentration of Libya’s riches in the hands of the ruling class under Muammar Gaddafi sparked outrage among the people. Gaddafi was overthrown and assassinated in 2011 after widespread demonstrations against his leadership turned into a civil war. But while groups wrestle for control, political unrest persists and the nation is still in disarray. Unlike other Arab Spring countries, however, the protests in Yemen and Syria ignited two prolonged civil wars, rather than political transitions. In the case of Syria, government repression under Bashar al-Assad led to the severe suppression of the 2011 protests against high unemployment rates, poor economic prospects, and limited freedoms. As for Yemen, economic hardship and corruption fueled protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s long-standing rule. Protesters cited poverty, joblessness, and an unequal distribution of resources as major grievances. The protests led to Saleh’s eventual resignation, but the country’s descent into a civil war ultimately yielded one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.
The Verdict: Is a New ‘Arab Spring’ in the Works?
Economic instability, widespread corruption, and political disengagement persist in the MENA region as we know it today, fueling a degree of discontent much similar to the one observed in the previous Arab Spring. In 2019, Lebanon, for instance, witnessed a series of protests fueled by severe economic mismanagement, political corruption, and rampant inflation, hence echoing concerns similar to those of the original revolts. Likewise, in Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, young people continue to face economic stagnation and a lack of opportunity, conditions that have remained largely unchanged and risk reigniting public dissent.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, prevalent corruption and poor economic management continue to halt significant progress and exacerbate inequality across a large portion of the region, which raises questions about the likelihood of further upheavals. Such recurrent economic and political struggles are further aggravated by oppressive regimes’ use of harsher tactics to quell opposition, as observed in Egypt and other post-Arab Spring nations. Despite the suppression, a number of experts—including World Bank analysts—argue that if these underlying issues are not addressed, there is still a considerable risk of civil unrest as socioeconomic resentment grows. It is equally important, however, to take into account the major technological advances made over the past years, many of which clearly continue to aid authoritarian regimes in their quest to silence dissent.
Questions
• What are some significant measures that global movements and organizations can implement to obstruct the violation of privacy of dissidents on behalf of authoritarian regimes?
• Will governments develop new strategies, possibly focused on societal structures, to suppress dissent more effectively?
• Can the ongoing efforts of the MENA region’s youth result in meaningful political change, or will authoritarian regimes continue to thwart such movements?
Suggested Readings:
Sly, Liz. “The unfinished business of the Arab Spring”. The Washington Post. January 24, 2021
“Why did Saudi Arabia want to silence Jamal Khashoggi?” PBS News. October 19, 2018
“We Will Find You: A Global Look at How Governments Repress Nationals Abroad”. Human Rights Watch. February 22, 2024
