The Journey of the New Pope

Introduction 

The Cold War was undoubtedly the Golden Age of modern Vatican diplomacy, a period when the Vatican chose to position itself alongside the USA, a majority Protestant power against the atheist power wielded by the Soviet Union. The late Pope John Paul II, Reagan and Gorbachev (who had once called the Polish pontiff the first citizen of global civil society) have been listed as the three men behind the fall of the Iron Curtain. Today, the Vatican’s relevance has declined in global affairs and as a moral guide. This decrease (also evident in other faiths) is due to factors such as a value gap between Catholic morals and mainstream American morality and the steady advancement of alternative religious movements, such as evangelical churches – often with political ramifications.

The Two Popes’ Relationship to the West and the Global South

There is no doubt that Pope Francis represented a unique papacy and the beginning of a new global path for the Church. He was the first pope from the Global South, and his election coincided with the Church’s realisation that the largest Catholic population pools in the next decades will be in the Global South. Francis’ declarations on homosexuality, his wish to deprovincialize the church – thus further embracing the Global South – and his active involvement in the war in Ukraine, along with his criticism of the US and even the Argentinian government, have marked his distinctive papacy. Furthermore, Pope Francis took a step closer to younger generations by embracing the global protest for climate change, as evidenced by the publication of his encyclical, “Laudato Si‘.” A strong symbolic act was the support for Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. It will not be easy for Pope Leo XIV to walk in the footsteps of such a personality, which attracted not only opposition by the conservative wing of the church but also admiration by progressive forces from within and outside the catholic community.

Pope Leo’s election can be read as an attempt to maintain the church on the global path initiated by Francis and as also a strategy to reconquer the Global North. The new American pontiff, described as “The least American of the Americans” by La Repubblica Vatican correspondent Iacopo Scaramuzzi, seems to be the personification of such a vision. Prevost is a Chicago native with French, Italian and Spanish roots that has spent part of his life in Peru (he holds a dual US-Peruvian citizenship) where he worked as a missionary. Pope Leo XIV is considered as a figure close to the Global South due to his missionary past, but his election signals how relevant the USA and the West still are to the Vatican.

The challenges Prevost will face include repositioning the Church as a serious global player, providing a valid alternative for the masses seeking spiritual refuge in evangelical movements, and presenting the Church as a capable institution to meet the needs of younger generations. The first months of papacy have made clear the pontiff’s global positions. Unlike his predecessor Francis, who claimed NATO was partly responsible for the war in Ukraine, Pope Leo has clearly chosen a side by denouncing the Russian invasion as imperialist and by expressing his support for President Zelenskyy. Concerning the conflicts in the Middle East, Pope Leo has repeatedly called for a permanent ceasefire and advocated for a 2-states solution in a meeting with Israel’s President Herzog. Furthermore, the Pope has criticised the US government on the occasion of the Jubilee of the Missionary World and the Jubilee of Migrants, claiming that the way migrants are treated in the USA and elsewhere is not pro-life. Pope Leo is also following Francis’ footsteps regarding climate action, ensuring proximity to younger Catholic generations.

Alternative Churches

If one decides to map the global situation of the Catholic Church, it is obvious that the most relevant geographic areas are not Europe or North America, world regions experiencing a demographic decline. This factor impacts their importance for the Church’s evangelizing efforts, but their economic and geopolitical power maintains their relevance for the Vatican’s strategy. The largest Catholic communities are now in Latin America, Asia and Africa. However, these regions pose serious challenges to the Catholic Church’s dominance. While the Global North experiences a progressive loss of identification with religion, large population segments in the Global South are embracing alternative faiths.

The rise of evangelical movements in Latin America can be attributed to various social and historical factors. These movements are popular in worse-off communities, as they provide not only a simple universal message of hope but also the promise of well-being and economic prosperity. Unlike the Catholic Church, which is often associated with colonialism and its historical heritage, these movements are considered more inclusive. Among the tools these movements have at their disposal to increase their popularity, the most powerful are political influence, a vast network and powerful communication systems that are generously funded by private donors. Furthermore, these movements provide stronger social elements which are in decline in other faiths and a status role to those wishing to become active players in preaching. According to Brazilian political analyst, Alex Hochuli, “To ambitious working-class men, this offers a route to a leadership position in the community, a path to self-improvement.”

These movements have considerably grown in the last decades, becoming a central element in the political life of many countries. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Costa Rican politician Fabricio Alvarado are two notable cases of politicians who are members of evangelical churches, with the first combining far-right values with evangelical ones, such as social conservatism and moral order. It is interesting to note how evangelicalism is also growing in Portuguese-speaking Africa as a tool of Brazilian foreign policy, representing a further obstacle for the Vatican in the region.

Vatican Tools of Influence

The Pope has several tools to improve the status of the Vatican at the global level. Since 1964 the Vatican has been a permanent observer at the United Nations; it is also a permanent observer at OSCE and at the Council of Europe. The Vatican maintains diplomatic relations with 184 countries and still has a vast network of churches around the world. However, the Vatican’s soft power is most evident in its involvement with education and charitable organisations. The Vatican boasts a considerable network of universities that are linked to the Holy See around the world and has promoted several Catholic schools in the global south, with a focus on primary literacy, secondary schooling, vocational and teacher training and healthcare education. Furthermore, Catholic NGOs such as Caritas, Missio and Aid to the Church in need are important funders of schools in poorer and conflict affected areas.

It is to be noted that Catholic education organisations have been criticised as vectors of cultural imperialism instrumentalising education as a converting tool. In this case, a further embrace of the local cultures and the presentation of an opportunity for economically disadvantaged masses towards economic and social improvement could offer a possibility of revival for the Church as an education provider in many regions of the Global South and elsewhere. However, if such a goal is to be met, it will be paramount for the church to acquire a more modern attitude to bioethical and social issues in order to be taken as a serious education provider.

Conclusion

Leo VIX faces several challenges that will test not only his leadership but also the Vatican’s ability to navigate modern global changes and conflicts. The existential task will involve consolidating the successes achieved by Francis in the Global South, while also approaching the Global North and serving as an intermediary between both hemispheres, thereby becoming a true Pontifex (bridge builder). The geopolitical task will be the restoration of papal diplomacy and the assumption of a firm voice in international conflicts. Finally, an important task will be providing a valid counter reaction to the development of alternative churches in the most populous Catholic regions. The challenge will consist of restoring the moral and social role of the church in countries that will be relevant in the future due to their considerable demographic growth and natural resources.

Open-ended questions:

1. Will the Catholic church ever become a powerful geopolitical actor again under the new Papacy?
2. Will Pope Leo gather the legacy of Pope Francis and also reinforce the Vatican’s role in the North?
3. Will the Vatican be able to provide a valid reaction to the spread of other religious movements in South America?

Further reading:

1. Global Study Uncovers Common Three-Stage Sequence in Religious Decline. Department of Sociology. August 22, 2025.
2. Braw, Elisabeth. John Paul II Understood Geopolitics. Engelsberg Ideas, October 9, 2023.
3. Schwarz, Karl-Peter. “Vatican Geopolitics.” GIS Reports Online. Accessed October 8, 2025.