Source: Instagram/Pablo Marçal via EBC.
The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil highlighted significant political dynamics, particularly in São Paulo, the country’s center of political and economic power. With a GDP comparable to that of Morocco and a labor market larger than the rest of Brazil combined, São Paulo plays a central role in shaping the national economy and political landscape. This election saw intense polarization, mirroring broader trends in Brazilian politics, and concluded with centrist mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB) defeating left-wing candidate Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) in the second round. However, one of the most remarkable figures to emerge was Pablo Marçal (PRTB), a businessman and digital influencer whose candidacy is often labeled as far-right due to his radical discourse, which blends cultural conservatism, delegitimization of institutions, and antagonistic populism.
His rhetoric emphasizes hyper-individualism, framing personal success as a moral imperative tied to entrepreneurial achievement while portraying traditional democratic institutions as ineffectual or corrupt. This aligns with broader far-right strategies that seek to erode public trust in governance structures while amplifying the role of the “strong individual.” Although Marçal’s relationship with the PRTB—a smaller party lacking a distinct far-right identity—was more strategic than ideological, his campaign effectively leveraged these radical messages, combined with a performance tailored to digital audiences. Narrowly missing the second round — having garnered over 1.7 million votes in the first — his candidacy not only reflects the diversification of far-right politics in Brazil but also underscores the growing role of digital platforms in reshaping political identities and mobilizing voters.
Who is Pablo Marçal?
Pablo Marçal, who before the elections was best known for his activities as a coach and for selling online courses, had unsuccessfully tried to run for president in 2022 when the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) barred his candidacy due to the annulment of the party convention that nominated him. Following this setback, Marçal later attempted to run for a seat as a federal deputy, securing over 200,000 votes, but his candidacy was impugned, preventing him from taking office. However, in the São Paulo mayoral elections, he ascended to a new level of prominence. With his digital communication strategy, based on short and highly viral videos, the candidate gained visibility and garnered support, especially among those most dissatisfied with the political status quo. Marçal even admitted that these viral videos often influenced his actions. His campaign combined attacks on the “corrupt system,” simplified promises of solutions, and emotional appeals, which resonated with voters disillusioned with institutions and the political class. He positioned himself as an outsider who could bring drastic changes to the system, a role commonly played by contemporary populist leaders.
What is most striking is that he achieved his projection despite having his social media accounts suspended by the Electoral Court in August, until the end of the election, due to accusations of “illicitly recruiting people to increase the visibility of his content” and encouraging the creation of “cuts” of his speeches, promoting a network of professional “cutters”. Despite having his accounts suspended, the candidate quickly created alternative profiles and surpassed all other candidates in follower count on Instagram.
In addition to his adeptness in utilizing social media, Marçal also drew attention by generating controversy through his confrontational approach during the campaign. He frequently used debate stages to launch personal attacks on his rivals, creating an intense rivalry with nearly all his opponents. This tension culminated in one of the election’s most emblematic moments when Marçal admitted to using an ambulance—after being hit with a chair by José Luiz Datena (PSDB)—to “make a scene”. In a video filmed during a dinner with supporters, Marçal said he could have run to the hospital and withstood other attacks but chose to use the moment to generate media impact.
The most serious episode was the case of the false report released on the eve of the election, which accused Guilherme Boulos of using cocaine. The report, which contained the signature of a deceased doctor, put Marçal in a delicate situation, with the possibility of being declared ineligible for seeking election for eight years, depending on the outcome of the investigations. In addition, Marçal tried to associate himself with international figures, such as Donald Trump, by sharing a supposed letter of support from an advisor to the former US president, which was later denied by Trump’s team.
Source: ABC.
Why Does Marçal’s Candidacy Matter?
Despite missing out on the second round, Pablo Marçal’s candidacy was significant in that he managed to capture and channel the discontent of a meaningful portion of the electorate with traditional politics. The outcome of the first round was decided by a narrow margin, with the top three candidates—Mayor Ricardo Nunes, Guilherme Boulos, and Pablo Marçal—virtually tied in voter support. Marçal missed the second round by just over 1% of the vote, highlighting how tight the race was. However, with more than 1.7 million votes, Marçal has positioned himself as a rising figure in the political arena, reinforcing his potential for future contests. The October 2024 Quaest poll already projects him with 18% of voting intentions for the 2026 presidential election, second only to Lula and ahead of Tarcísio de Freitas (current Governor of the State of São Paulo). This demonstrates his growth on the national scene and the relevance he has garnered with disaffected voters.
However, Valdemar Costa Neto, president of Jair Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL), pointed out that Marçal does not yet have enough strength to compete directly with Bolsonaro. Costa Neto pointed out that Marçal’s behavior during the campaign, marked by episodes of violence and personal attacks, could harm his consolidation as a viable alternative in the next election cycle, for which Bolsonaro is ineligible. In any case, the fact that Marçal is mentioned in the context of a possible presidential race is already a positive indication of his political visibility and relevance within the conservative spectrum. However, he faces challenges that could slow down this growth, such as the ongoing judicial investigations regarding the alleged falsification of a report against Boulos.
Source: Sebastião Moreira/EPA via BBC.
Digital Populism and the Risks to Democracy
The rise of figures like Pablo Marçal raises important questions about the direction of politics in Brazil and globally. The combination of populism and aggressive digital strategies has proven its efficacy but poses considerable risks for democracy. Disinformation, personal attacks, and extreme polarization weaken political debate and reduce trust in democratic institutions. In Marçal’s case, the use of fake news and misleading narratives is a clear example of how such populist candidates can manipulate public perceptions to gain political advantages.
In a broader sense, we can see parallels between Marçal and figures like Jeremy Corbyn in the United Kingdom, Beppe Grillo in Italy, and Donald Trump in the United States. These figures have used their social media platforms to channel mass popular dissatisfaction which in turn has catapulted them into political prominence and relevance. Marçal follows a similar model, and his ability to mobilize through social media makes him a leading figure for the future of Brazilian politics. Marçal, like Trump and Grillo, positions himself as an outsider who is not part of the political establishment and is therefore better placed to lead the masses against a corrupt system. Grillo did this by directly attacking established politicians in Italy, while Trump stood out for his aggressive rhetoric against the political elite in Washington. Marçal follows this line by attacking the “communist consortium” — as he calls it — and other established political actors in Brazil. The rhetoric of these politicians emphasizes the traditional populist discourse of division between “the people” and “the elite.” They present themselves as the legitimate voice of a discontented population they seek to mobilize through emotional appeals. It is also not uncommon to see them adopt a direct approach to the public, often bypassing the traditional media and even discrediting it. Grillo, for example, used his blog and digital movements to build the 5 Star Movement party. In contrast, Trump used Twitter as one of the main communication platforms during his campaign and presidency. Marçal follows a similar strategy, with strategies that include short videos and viral cuts to reach followers and maintain media attention.
It is important to remember that these figures exert pressure on democratic systems not only through disinformation or personal attacks but also by exploiting the very mechanisms of democracy to undermine its fundamental principles. They challenge institutional norms by pushing legal frameworks to the limit, circumventing traditional checks and balances, and taking advantage of loopholes to consolidate their power or weaken the opposition. Trump’s attempts to challenge the US election results and Grillo’s rhetoric against Italy’s political elites illustrate how these leaders erode trust in democratic processes while continuing to act within them. This approach, often justified as a fight against corruption or systemic inefficiency, can destabilize public trust and set a dangerous precedent, weakening the institutions’ ability to safeguard democratic values.
The rise of Pablo Marçal is not an isolated case on the Brazilian scene but part of a global trend in which political outsiders use digital media and popular dissatisfaction to facilitate and solidify their candidacies. This strategy has been widely analyzed in other international contexts, as discussed by Césarino (2020), who mentions how social media enables new forms of populist political mobilization, facilitating direct communication between leaders and voters, often bypassing the traditional mediation of political institutions. Ultimately, Marçal’s candidacy, even if rendered unsuccessful, reflects growing political fragmentation and the search for a new political formula that challenges the established order. However, observing this phenomenon can serve as a warning; the consolidation of leaders based on strategies of digital manipulation and extreme polarization could result in even greater challenges for democracy, especially if these leaders can build coalitions broad enough to achieve power.
Source: Getty Images via BBC.
Further Questions
- Is the rise of figures like Pablo Marçal indicative of a growing disillusionment with traditional politics?
- Can a democracy flourish when political discourse is dominated by viral media strategies and extreme polarization?
- What could be the long-term consequences of leaders who use manipulation and disinformation as their main tools?
Suggested Readings
- M.S. (2016) ‘What is populism?’, The Economist, 19 December..
- Cesarino, L. (2020) ‘How social media affords populist politics: remarks on liminality based on the Brazilian case’, Trabalhos em Linguística Aplicada, 59(1).
- Molloy, D. (2018) ‘What is populism, and what does the term actually mean?’, BBC News, 6 March..
