As news consumption has increasingly moved online, concerns about the credibility and reliability of online information have grown. This digital shift has sparked interest in disinformation as a driver for political influence or to simply mislead. Disinformation, as defined by the US Department of Homeland Security, refers to the deliberate dissemination of false information. Alongside this, misinformation involves the unintentional sharing of inaccuracies. According to the Global Risks Report, misinformation and disinformation are seen as significant threats for 2024. With clickbait and sensationalized content dominating social media platforms, these tactics have turned into a profitable industry focused on attracting viewers, often at the expense of truth.
Despite social media being the least trusted news source globally since 2016, many internet users still turn to these platforms for current affairs, inadvertently exposing themselves to fake news. The Iranian government has been notably active in this domain, with Microsoft estimating that it conducted 24 cyber-enabled influence operations throughout 2022. The threat of disinformation reaches across civil society, international organizations, academia, government and the private sector, making it a key concern in global risk assessments.
Understanding Disinformation
Iran’s early engagement with the internet fostered an environment of open discourse, especially through internet cafes and online platforms. However, this openness quickly shifted into a landscape of censorship, especially after the 2009 Green movement, which saw significant crackdown on dissent. In contrast, Iran has increasingly harnessed digital platforms for propaganda and diplomatic purposes. The Islamic Republic has a long-standing history of information warfare, highlighted by Ayatollah Khamenei’s 2019 statement that promoting content is a crucial international weapon against adversaries. Various entities, including the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Iranian Intelligence services, are actively involved in these digital campaigns, often obscuring their ties to state authorities to appear independent from the state.
John Brennan, the former CIA director, has noted the growing use of disinformation as a tool of warfare by various nations. Disinformation sites typically do not rely solely on fake content; rather, mix real information with exaggerated or misleading claims, making it difficult for audiences to discern the truth. The rise of advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) models has further simplified the creation of deceptive content, posing significant challenges for public discourse. OpenAI has reported efforts to identify and shut down covert influence operations utilizing AI models for content generation, translation and engagement simulation. Among the disrupted operations was one linked to Iran, known as the International Union of Virtual Media, which utilized open AI to generate and translate articles for publication on its websites. Iranian influence operations often plagiarize news from established news outlets to lend credibility to low-effort websites masquerading as independent news sources.
Iran’s disinformation strategies are politically motivated, primarily targeting the US, Israel, Iranian opposition figures, and rival Gulf states. For instance, Iranian cyber operations against Israel have had broader repercussions affecting the US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The digital landscape has become saturated with Iranian propaganda, exemplified by platforms like Nile Net Online, one of over 70 sites identified by Reuters that circulate Iranian disinformation while posing as legitimate news outlets.The impact of disinformation runs deep, especially in electoral processes, where it can exacerbate societal polarization and provoke political unrest in democratic nations, thereby invoking government response that can potentially undermine free speech and human rights.
Iranian Disinformation Tactics
Iran employs tactics that often exaggerate its moral authority while minimizing domestic issues, all aimed at furthering its foreign policy objectives. The primary targets of these campaigns are Western nations and Israel, with strategies designed to stir contempt, polarize opinions, and manipulate political dynamics in favor of Iranian interests. For example, Facebook recently removed 82 accounts and pages linked to Iranian disinformation efforts, which had gained over a million followers in just a month, according to Reuters.
Unlike Russian disinformation methods that rely heavily on outright fabrication, Iranian operations typically offer distorted versions of the truth that enhance Tehran’s image and policy goals. Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center reported Iranian efforts to create discord among American voters leading up to elections, with several Iranian hackers facing charges related to information warfare. Investigations revealed that an Iranian group operated four fake websites posing as American news outlets, amplifying divisive narratives.
Additionally, the use of disinformation and cyber warfare tactics to influence the 2020 US presidential elections is another example where Iran-backed groups circulated anti-US, anti-Trump content online due to Donald Trump’s disdain towards the Iran nuclear agreement as opposed to Joe Biden’s support for it in an effort to influence the electoral process. These disinformation tactics have a global reach, with content translated in various languages to target audiences worldwide. The risks associated with such campaigns are considerable, including censorship, societal polarization, civil unrest, violence, and the erosion of human rights, as well as heightened threats of extremist attacks and armed conflict.
Impact on Global Affairs
Disinformation campaigns play a significant role in shaping public opinion and political discourse. In early 2023, over 40% of US news consumers encountered false information about the COVID-19 pandemic, a trend mirrored in Slovakia regarding the war in Ukraine. These statistics highlight how targeted disinformation can influence political landscapes and underscore the importance of public vigilance.
In response to escalating Iranian information warfare, the US government has implemented sanctions and designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The IRIB has also faced sanctions as part of broader efforts to curb Iranian influence in the global media sphere. While Iran’s disinformation campaigns may not be as extensive as those from Russia, they have had a significant impact by exploiting volatile political issues. For example, a fabricated story in 2016 prompted Pakistan’s then defense minister to issue threats of nuclear retaliation against Israel, later revealed as part of an Iranian disinformation plot. Such state-sponsored disinformation efforts can escalate tensions in international relations and contribute to increased cyber offenses, leading to a more volatile geopolitical environment.
Combating Disinformation
Given the sheer volume of information circulating on social media, combating disinformation presents a formidable challenge. National agencies and human resources alone cannot effectively tackle this issue; it is essential to raise public awareness about how to identify and report false information. Current efforts to combat disinformation, including new cybersecurity regulations, often struggle to keep up with the rapid speed and volume of online disinformation. There has been an increase in development of applications, websites and organizations focused on identifying and addressing influence operations utilizing misinformation and disinformation.
While social media platforms can swiftly remove accounts known for spreading disinformation, dismantling entire websites requires collaboration among law enforcement, internet service providers, and web infrastructure companies. The Iran Disinformation Project has raised concerns over attacks on allegedly pro-Iranian US journalists, damaging the credibility of organizations like the Global Engagement Center and hindering efforts to identify Iranian digital influence networks.
To efficiently combat disinformation, it is crucial to understand the impact of these operations. Brookings has proposed the “Breakout Scale”, a model for measuring the influence operations based on observable, replicable, verifiable and available data. The scale is divided into six categories ranging from low-level transfers to the same platform to high-profile individuals and posts inciting a policy response. For instance, the disinformation operation targeting Pakistan’s defense minister in 2016 can be classified as a category five operation, which involves amplification by high-profile individuals, such as political candidates. This scale underscores the significance of influential figures in boosting engagement with disinformation online.
Future Considerations
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the threat posed by Iranian disinformation remains a pressing concern. Microsoft highlights the ongoing risk of cyberattacks from Iranian groups targeting critical infrastructure and domestic processes, emphasizing the urgent need for vigilance and proactive measures in countering these tactics. The complex interplay of disinformation, misinformation, and the rapidly changing digital environment presents significant challenges to public discourse and democratic processes globally. Addressing these challenges will require a coordinated effort among governments, civil society, and the public to build a more informed and resilient information ecosystem. In the absence of robust regulations and safeguards addressing AI and disinformation amidst rapid technological advancements, a greater effort is required in educating the general public to recognize and resist influence operations and understand the credibility and the integrity of the information shared online.
Questions:
- What collaborative strategies can governments, private companies, and individuals undertake to combat disinformation while also protecting the journalistic integrity and right to speech?
- How can the international community address the ongoing threat of Iranian disinformation campaigns in terms of safeguarding democratic processes and critical infrastructure?
- How can nations implement educational and awareness programs about state-sponsored disinformation campaigns without alienating certain communities or fostering polarized views?
Suggested Readings:
“How to Contain the Disinformation Virus”. RAND. April 9, 2020.
“Iran’s COVID-19 Disinformation Campaign”. Combating Terrorism Center. June, 2020
“Are concerns about digital disinformation and elections overblown?”. Brookings. August 7, 2024
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