- New Normal of Deliberate Escalation Between India and Pakistan - 30 March, 2026
The deep-seated animosity between India and Pakistan, marked by multiple wars and military skirmishes, is rooted in historical grievances, strategic misperceptions, the influence of emerging technologies, the evolution of military doctrines and geopolitical realities. Within this context, on April 22, 2025, India accused Pakistan of executing a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir. Later, on May 7, India orchestrated punitive missile attacks on strategic locations throughout Pakistan as part of a military campaign called ‘Operation Sindoor.’ Pakistan retaliated by launching ‘Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos’ on May 10, conducting aerial strikes on Indian military installations. During the four-day conflict, which lasted until a US-brokered ceasefire, both sides approached a sharp escalation. The May 2025 episode made it evident how advanced technologies are altering the deterrence equation between the two South Asian arch-rivals.
High-Tech Warfare and Shifting Crisis Thresholds
Unlike the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot incident, the nuclear-armed neighbours expanded the intensity of this confrontation by employing AI-powered weapon systems and cyber-offensive measures. For the first time, India employed cruise missiles, like French SCALP-EG and long-range BrahMos, to attack wider targets in Pakistan, including military installations and civilian populations. Pakistan, equipped with the latest Chinese jets, used PL-15 air-to-air missiles and short-range ballistic Fatah-series missiles against key military infrastructure and logistics nodes across India. For the first time in a military conflict, both parties deployed drones and unmanned aerial systems to execute cost-effective precision strikes and inflict disproportionate economic losses on one another. India reportedly employed Israeli Harop drones, while Pakistan used Turkish YIHA drones.
Once considered escalatory, operational readiness was normalized as armed forces on both sides demonstrated multi-domain coordination and integrated operations. The crisis-prone relationship between India and Pakistan is best explained by the ‘stability-instability paradox.’ According to this theory, both countries agree that the conflict cannot escalate catastrophically and all-out conventional war is not an option; instability is likely to emerge at lower levels of provocations though, while nuclear weapons offer stability and deterrence at the highest levels of conflict. However, New Delhi dramatically increased the extent of its conventional attack against Islamabad in May 2025, exceeding previous thresholds in terms of systems employed and geographic reach.
Hydropolitical Dimensions of India–Pakistan Relationship
Shared water resources have emerged as strategic instruments to exert geopolitical pressure that cannot go unmentioned. After the allegations of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam attack, India unilaterally suspended the World Bank-negotiated Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960. IWT has divided the waters of the Indus River and its tributaries between New Delhi and Islamabad for more than six decades. Islamabad condemned the suspension of the water-sharing agreement as an ‘act of war.’ The Indus River System supports approximately 27% of Pakistan’s hydroelectric power generation and 80% of its irrigated agriculture. Therefore, weaponization of water has the potential exacerbate the country’s water insecurity issue and pose an existential threat. Pakistan has expressed its willingness to re-engage on the treaty’s terms; meanwhile, India lacks the necessary water storage facilities to redirect and block river flows into Pakistan. This conditional suspension may then present an opportunity for both countries to establish a more inclusive and flexible framework for water diplomacy.
Disinformation Operations and External Crisis Management
This recent stand-off marks the first instance of a parallel war in which crisis-related disinformation campaigns intensified war hysteria between the two countries. New Delhi used deceptive tactics to support fabricated claims of military victories on social media platforms like Facebook and X by posting AI-generated doctored content, which was then pushed by its media and government ministries. Islamabad lifted a ban on X after the conflict began, becoming a source of disinformation. Pakistan claimed five Indian jets were shot down during air-to-air combat, while India said three jets crashed but did not specify whether they belonged to India or Pakistan. In November 2025, the annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) to the US Congress confirmed Pakistan’s military achievements against India in May 2025. Overall, both states leveraged the creation and dissemination of state-backed narratives to influence public perception to their advantage.
Furthermore, existing confidence-building measures (CBMs), such as a hotline between the directors general of military operations on both sides were reportedly utilized to defuse the crisis. Third-party diplomatic mediation also helped in crisis management. JD Vance, the US Vice President, contacted Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, in an attempt to reduce bilateral tensions. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Pakistan’s senior officials, including Army Chief Asim Munir, to facilitate negotiations. While the involvement of international players can help in de-escalating crises, it does not effectively address underlying concerns, as seen throughout the India-Pakistan rivalry.
Conclusion
Throughout their diplomatic history, strategic misunderstandings have driven Indo-Pakistan interstate relations, revealing a fragile balance of power. Strategic stability in South Asia depends on the aversion of war across all domains, including conventional, nuclear, informational, and cyber. India and Pakistan have used stand-off posturing as a pretext for confrontation more than any other nuclear-armed state in the world. Although timely third-party mediation prevented this crisis from escalating into full-scale war, it does not guarantee that it will next time.
Both sides appear to be less cognizant of the new normal of deliberate escalation. Though all wars are political, not all politics is war. There can never be a meaningful new normal between the two nuclear-armed countries so long as they continue to test escalation ladders through military adventurism. The effectiveness of novel technologies is primarily determined by their practical application, not their sheer presence as deterrents, like nuclear weapons. Therefore, intentional targeting and use of cyber capabilities could have amplified the likelihood of strategic miscalculations between New Delhi and Islamabad in May 2025.
A full-scale war would not only devastate both countries, but it would also run the risk of mimicry elsewhere around the world. Without resorting to large-scale military engagements, drone warfare and tactical disinformation operations are likely to play a significant role in escalating future tensions between India and Pakistan. The resilience of their deterrence relationship will be further tested by the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military frameworks and high-technology platforms.
Nevertheless, Kashmir, the impetus for this conflict, remains a disputed territory that requires a multifaceted approach to resolving its final status. The resolution of the lingering Kashmir question hinges on diplomacy, structured dialogue, and a commitment to international law. New Delhi and Islamabad should reconsider their restraint regimes by establishing escalation control mechanisms then. Institutionalizing and expanding CBMs, such as developing crisis communication channels at different levels, could therefore be another way to achieve stable deterrence between the two. There is no doubt, however, that the lethality of hostility and the rules of engagement between India and Pakistan have widened since this most recent military confrontation. Which is why such resolution mechanisms must be an imperative moving forward.
Questions
- To what extent are emerging technologies such as AI and cyber capabilities lowering the threshold for conflict between India and Pakistan despite nuclear deterrence?
- Can existing confidence building measures and third party mediation effectively manage future crises, or is a new framework for escalation control needed in South Asia?
- How might the weaponization of non-traditional domains like water resources and information reshape long term strategic stability between India and Pakistan?
Further Readings
Clary, C. (2025, May 28). Four Days in May: The India‑Pakistan Crisis of 2025. Stimson Center.
