- Libya Peace Initiative: Can Egypt and Türkiye’s Efforts End the Political Deadlock? - 9 June, 2025
- Öcalan Calls, PKK and Turkish Government Pick Up: Is a New Peace Process on the Line? - 18 May, 2025
- [Analysis] Rolling the Dice on the Development Road: Will Iraq and Türkiye Hit the Jackpot? - 14 February, 2025
Libya has entered its thirteenth year without a unified central government. (Source: SkyTG24. Licensed under the Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license. No changes to the original picture made.)
Almost fourteen years have passed since October 20, 2011 — the day Muammar Gaddafi, the longtime leader of the Libyan Jamahiriya and de facto president, was found hiding in a drainage pipe near Sirte and executed by revolutionary forces. It was a day many hoped would mark Libya’s first step toward democracy and long-awaited freedoms. But instead of ushering in a new era, it plunged the country into a spiral of chaos.
The factions that had united to overthrow the Brotherly Leader — as Gaddafi liked to call himself — quickly turned one against the other, each hoping to seize control of the country’s institutions and natural wealth. Over time, two dominant camps emerged: the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, now led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, and the Government of National Stability (GNS) in Sirte, nominally headed by Osama Hammad, but effectively under the control of Khalifa Haftar, commander of the self-styled Libyan National Army.
For more than a decade, these factions have been locked in a power struggle, backed by competing foreign patrons. Yet, neither has managed to secure full power or international recognition, leaving Libya and its people suspended in a limbo. One attempt after another at reconciliation has faltered, each collapsing under the weight of distrust, diverging ambitions, and greed.
Now, however, a new initiative is beginning to take shape. As Türkiye and Egypt recalibrate their priorities and step forward as mediators, cautious optimism is beginning to stir; a hope that this time, the path may finally lead somewhere different.
Egypt and Türkiye: Key Players in Libya’s Fragmented Landscape
The optimism surrounding the Egypt–Türkiye initiative stems from the critical roles both countries have played in Libya’s fractured landscape.
In September, Sisi visited Türkiye for the first time and held discussions with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, addressing several topics, including the situation in Libya. (Source: NEW DEMOCRACY on Flickr licensed under the Attribution-NonCommercial 2.0 Generic license. No changes to the original picture made)
Since the outbreak of the second civil war in 2014, Cairo and Ankara have supported opposing sides: Egypt has been a key backer of the GNS, providing military, diplomatic, and financial support to Haftar’s camp, while Türkiye has thrown its weight behind the GNU. Their involvement helped narrow the field of contenders and block extremist groups like ISIS from gaining a foothold. But it also deepened Libya’s internal fractures and cemented the political deadlock. Now, as Türkiye and Egypt mend ties after nearly thirteen years of hostility, a new opportunity appears to be emerging. At a summit in Ankara in September 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi pledged to work together to resolve the Libyan crisis, committing to use their influence over their respective allies to foster dialogue and pursue a lasting political solution.
Strategic Interests Drive Ankara and Cairo’s New Approach
This engagement is far from being dictated by a sincere interest in Libya’s fate. It is driven by strategic necessity. As both countries are grappling with shrinking resources and rising domestic discontent, Libya represents a potential lifeline.
For Türkiye, a stable Libya could offer lucrative reconstruction and infrastructure contracts, providing a chance to capitalise on its expertise in construction and development. For Egypt, it could unlock energy cooperation and new export markets to help ease over a year of state-imposed power cuts and mounting economic pressure. Beyond these economic motives, a diplomatic success in Libya would boost both countries’ standing as regional power brokers, not just in North Africa but across the Middle East. In short, the convergence of domestic urgency, strategic incentives, and improving bilateral ties has opened a window for joint action.
Early Signs of Cooperation
Since their meeting in September, the Turkish and Egyptian governments have begun taking concrete steps in Libya by engaging directly with key actors on both sides. Turkish intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın has met with GNU leader Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has held talks with Belkacem Haftar, the son of the eastern commander and an emerging power broker. On the Egyptian side, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has met with Khalifa Haftar himself. These actions suggest that Ankara and Cairo are now actively coordinating their efforts to help broker a resolution.
And the first signs that the recent diplomatic thaw is yielding results on the ground are beginning to appear. While no official roadmap has been made public, recent developments point to a slow but meaningful shift in tone and cooperation between the GNU and the GNS.
In a major step forward, both sides agreed last September to jointly appoint a new central bank governor. They have also allowed local elections to resume across all 58 municipalities after years of delay. These actions are more than symbolic. After nearly a decade of avoiding meaningful collaboration, this new willingness to cooperate signals a turn toward pragmatic coexistence.
Libya’s political deadlock finds its roots in disputes over the distribution of revenues — particularly from oil and gas production — between the elite families in the country’s east and west. (Source: Cipiota, licensed under the Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license. No changes to the original image made).
What could keep this momentum going is the creation of a shared economic framework. After all, the conflict has always been, at its core, about control of resources. By unfreezing stalled investments and ensuring a fair distribution of oil revenues, both sides would gain tangible benefits — the kind of incentives that make long-term unity more likely. This is a clear area where Türkiye and Egypt could focus their efforts, helping to unify Libya’s divided leadership by acting as guarantors of wealth-sharing agreements.
Is Peace Finally Coming?
Whether these developments will lead to lasting peace remains uncertain. Tensions between the two rival administrations — and even within them, as recent clashes in Tripoli show — highlight just how fragile the current situation still is, and the limits any agreement might face.
Yet the efforts by Turkish and Egyptian officials as intermediaries point to a more hopeful path. If Türkiye and Egypt can sustain their cooperation, and if Libya’s rival factions can move beyond blind rivalry and commit to a shared, pragmatic vision of state-building, then the long-awaited dream of a unified, functional Libya may finally be within reach.
For a population worn down by war and broken promises, finally be the long-awaited light at the tunnel’s end.
Could this be the moment when the code to peace is finally cracked? As many Libyans would say: insha’Allah.
Questions for Consideration:
- How can international actors — like the UN — best support the Egyptian-Turkish initiative for a lasting peace in Libya?
- Beyond elites, how might resolving Libya’s crisis improve the daily lives of ordinary Libyans?
- If Egypt and Türkiye succeed in Libya, could they collaborate to address other regional conflicts like Sudan for greater influence?
Additional Readings:
