- (Analysis) Watch Out – The Looming Arms Race in the Arctic - 17 February, 2025
An air view of an F-16 and an F-15 American Air Force jet fighter. Source: Pxhere
Aside from the prevalent resources race narrative, the recent military build-up of great powers in the Arctic is supported by their intensifying military confrontations in other parts of the globe, and it’s raising the risk of an arms race in the region.
Background
On July 24, 2024, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted two Chinese H-6K bombers and two Russian Tu-95MS bombers flying near Alaska’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). After the NORAD detection, they scrambled American F-16s, F-35s, and Canadian CF-18 fighters to intercept the Sino-Russo joint bomber formation. While the Russian bombers are common in flying over the Arctic region, it was the first time for the Chinese. The Russian Defense Ministry noted that the joint bomber exercises spanned the North Pacific, Bering, and Chukchi Seas with over five hours of operation.
However, this unprecedented event raised a question: what might be the security impacts of the joint Sino-Russo bomber exercises near Alaska in the Arctic? While some might interpret the event as a move by the great powers to establish the Arctic’s military presence to contest future access to the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and regional undersea resources amid climate change, the joint exercises reveal deeper security motivations.
China’s Security Motivations Behind the Joint Exercises
Beijing’s security motivations for the joint exercises were unlikely related to economic incentives, such as contesting the NSR’s future access or dominating the undersea resources. Firstly, the Arctic’s extreme environment and low economic viability of the NSR are insufficient to drive Beijing to joint exercises near the Arctic Circle. Specifically, although the melting glaciers amid climate change provide a new shipment path, the weather conditions became more unpredictable, forcing vessels to sail near the shore and only be available for lighter ships. This situation alone already made a large volume of shipments difficult to materialize. More importantly, China’s exports primarily via southern ports like Shanghai and Guangdong make the traditional Suez route still shorter and more economically viable than the NSR.
Secondly, the extraction costs of undersea resources and related technical difficulties are still enormous and would accompany geopolitical impediments from Arctic states. In contrast, China’s leadership in renewables and nuclear energy offers a more realistic and cheaper path to achieving energy security amid the global energy transformation and decarbonization trends. All these factors have made the potential costs outweigh Beijing’s economic gains from undersea resource extraction, making economic incentives unlikely to drive Beijing’s push for joint exercises.
Furthermore, a more plausible explanation for Beijing’s security motivations behind the joint exercises is the attractiveness of the Arctic’s special military significance. The Arctic has been the primary path for military strikes between global powers as it provides the shortest path between Eurasia and North America. This is why the United States strategically established its Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system to intercept missile threats there. Accordingly, the joint exercises near Alaska and the Arctic can be seen as Beijing’s attempt to exert military pressure on the U.S. homeland.
A top-down view of the Arctic Circle Source: Wikimedia Commons
Chinese state media have confirmed this security motivation through statements from military spokespersons. Zhang Xiaogang, a Defense Ministry spokesperson, stressed that the U.S. must adapt to China’s military presence near its homeland, as the US poses greater security concerns to China. Similarly, Hu Xijin, former Global Times editor-in-chief, argued that sending aircraft closer to U.S. shores is necessary to counter American bomber and reconnaissance activities near China. A July 27 report also rebukes U.S. claims of “unprecedented provocation,” criticizing frequent American military activities near Taiwan and the South China Sea.
In this vein, the joint exercises can seen as Beijing’s direct response to Washington’s military activities around its border, especially Taiwan, which Beijing deemed the most sensitive risk between both sides. Considering losing military advantages against China in the Indo-Pacific, Washington is developing its “deterrence by denial” strategy to deter and defeat China in their potential conflict in Taiwan, to maintain its power. This strategy stresses that overwhelmingly attriting Chinese forces with numerous low-cost drones in their possible conflict in Taiwan, like turning it into a hellscape, is key to defeating China. This could involve limited strikes on China’s coastal air defense and naval assets with simultaneous diplomatic and economic measures (i.e., sanctions) from the U.S. and its allies. Accordingly, the joint bomber exercises can be seen as Beijing’s signal to Washington that its North American homeland might be struck if their conflict erupts near China’s border.
Beijing is also expected to continue bolstering its military presence in the Arctic amid its growing geopolitical confrontations with Washington in the Indo-Pacific. Given the U.S. long-held asymmetrical geopolitical advantage, by projecting military power near its adversaries through overseas bases, Beijing is strengthening its deterrence capabilities in the Arctic to eliminate this gap. Chinese international politics professor Shen Yi told CCTV, another state media outlet, that the joint exercises showed China’s deterrence capabilities amid its rivalry with the U.S. and that it will continually enhance them. Cameron Carlson, former director of UAF’s Center for Arctic Security and Resilience, also noted that the joint exercises were China’s signal that it would conduct more similar exercises in the Arctic region to project its power near the American homeland.
A group of American soldiers exercise with UH-1 helicopters near the Arctic region. Source: Pxhere
Russia’s Security Motivations Behind the Joint Exercises
The Kremlin’s security motivation behind the joint exercises with China can be better understood through the unprecedented nature of these drills. Traditionally, Russia has viewed the Arctic as its backyard and is cautious of Chinese influences stepping into the region. However, for the first time, Russia allowed Chinese bombers to operate from its highly sensitive Anadyr Air Base, which contains its most sensitive military secrets, such as specialized ammunition and electronic warfare systems. Sergey Ishchenko, a Russian military analyst, stressed that the maximum flight radius of China’s H-6 bombers could not reach high latitudes like the Chukchi Sea without Russian airfield support. But Russia never allowed foreigners to enter Anadyr, let alone permit their military aircraft to take off. Accordingly, allowing Chinese bombers to use Anadyr for joint exercises signals a subtle shift in Moscow’s Arctic defense strategy and its military ties with China.
Sergey’s analysis provides more insights into Moscow’s reasons behind such a shift. He noted that the Director of U.S. National Intelligence, Avril Haines, mentioned that the U.S. must anticipate Russia’s role in a potential Taiwan conflict, as Moscow will unlikely be a bystander. Becca Wasser, head of the Center for New American Security, concurs and expects Russia to engage in distractive military actions elsewhere to split American resources that could focus on China. Sergey argued that regardless of future developments, Russia offered what China needed: to monitor Washington more closely than ever. In other words, Russia is strategically manipulating the Chinese military presence in the Arctic to pressure the U.S.
Such strategic calculations of Moscow could be understood by considering its military confrontations with the US amid the Ukraine war. Since the war outbreak, the U.S. has notably increased its military deployments around Russia’s doorstep for deterrence. This involves enhancing NATO’s forward presence in Eastern Europe, redeploying American long-range missiles in Germany, and gradually permitting Ukraine to strike the Russian homeland with NATO weapons. However, from Moscow’s perspective, these military buildups along its borders are escalating the Western proxy war in Ukraine into a direct conflict with the U.S.-led NATO while forcing it to prepare for prolonged confrontations.
An F-22 Raptor escorts an Alaska Air National Guard’s newly received HC-130J at Alaska. Source: Itoldya420
While Russia cannot confront NATO alone, offering Anadyr for Chinese bombers for usage in their possible conflict in Taiwan could offer Moscow additional leverage in its long-term confrontations or negotiations with the U.S. Specifically, introducing Chinese military presence in the Arctic during relative peacetime could force the U.S. to allocate more resources to the struggle with China while focusing less on itself. Conversely, Moscow could secure a powerful ally if the Taiwan conflict broke out between China and the US. Even if the U.S. eventually seeks to negotiate Ukraine’s future, Russia’s neutral stance between China and the U.S. could be leveraged to extract concessions from NATO regarding its military presence around Russia’s borders.
In other words, like Beijing, Moscow’s push for joint bomber exercises is closely related to its growing military confrontations with the US elsewhere. Considering NATO mulls to allow Ukraine to use its long-range missiles to attack the core Russia while heightening the tensions between Moscow, Moscow’s push for growing Russo-Sino military cooperation near the Arctic is expected to continue.
The U.S. Response and its Arctic Strategy
Recognizing the growing Sino-Russo military presence in the Arctic and the region’s proximity to the U.S. homeland, the Mitchell Institute advised the Pentagon in October 2023 to build a multi-layered missile defeat system. This system comprises early detection, tracking, attribution, and counterstrike capabilities against aviation and missile threats from adversaries from the High North.
The U.S. thus requires a network of sensors consisting of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) satellites and drones, like the MQ9, for early warning while employing drones and reconnaissance planes, like the P-8, for potential threat tracking. Afterward, tracking intelligence would transmit to an over-the-horizon radar for further attribution, and then early warning aircraft would track and lead fighters, like the F-35A, for counterstrikes. However, communication satellites are the first element and paramount for making the system viable by ensuring high-speed data transmission across the defense network to establish the Arctic’s information dominance. After the system’s establishment, it’s believed it would bestow Americans with pre-emptive advantages to deter the Arctic’s military deployment of adversaries.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon released its 2024 Arctic Strategy on July 22, before the Sino-Russo joint exercises occurred, largely aimed at establishing this missile defeat system. The strategy notes that the US would bolster its ISR and missile warning capabilities and data and communication infrastructure, which include operating over 250 fighters, like the F35, with allies by 2030. The U.S. would also engage with allies to enhance domain awareness and military readiness, like increasing their forward presence. Simultaneously, the U.S. would strengthen its exercises, permanently deploy its Joint Forces units in Alaska with rotational unit support, and routinely conduct air defense and maritime drills with allies.
After the Strategy was released, the U.S. swiftly implemented it and put it into action. For instance, the U.S. launched two communication satellites used for commercial and military purposes for Norway in August. It also began the Northern Viking 2024 defense exercise in and around Iceland with its allies to secure the sea routes of the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap. Besides, it newly established the “Arctic Aviation Command” at Alaska’s Fort Wainwright base to strengthen its military readiness.
Recently, these Arctic military deployments exhibited a tit-for-tat situation between global powers. Amid the rising tensions with NATO, Russia unfolded the largest military drill, “Ocean 2024”, for 30 years with China, which spanned the Pacific and Arctic oceans between September 10 and September 16. Simultaneously, the U.S. dispatched a destroyer and two HIMARS rocket launchers with airborne troops to Alaska to warn Russia. It also held the “Operation Polar Vortex” multi-domain exercises from September 11 to September 15 to show its rapid response capabilities to defend its homeland. These concurrent and strong confrontational exercises highlight the growing military tensions between global powers.
A Russian soldier patrolling around the Russian Arctic military base Northern Clover. Source: Defense Visual Information Distribution Service (This file comes from the websites (mil.ru, минобороны.рф) of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. It is licensed under the the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Licence.)
Given the region’s geographic proximity to global powers, the Arctic is vital for their homeland security. This situation would naturally push major powers to augment their military presence in the region when their confrontations intensified for deterrence and counterbalance. As the current tensions continue heightening rather than de-escalating, both sides will likely continue to increase their regional military presence to ensure the balance of power can tilt toward its side, and the Sino-Russo joint bomber exercises were only a beginning. Eventually, this build-up could spark more frequent and larger-scale offense-and-defense confrontational exercises, increasing the risk of a regional arms race. As a Finnish security expert, Minna Alander, notes that the Arctic will no longer be free from world power struggle but might become ‘high north, high tension.’
Suggested Readings:
Detsch, J., Gramer, R., 2024, “Arctic Geopolitics: Russia and China Eye New Trade Routes in the High North,” Foreign Policy, 30 May 2024
Air & Space Forces Magazine, 2023, “Deterring Arctic Threats | Air & Space Forces Magazine,” Air & Space Forces Magazine, 5 October 2023
Nikolov, B., 2024, “Chinese jets and Tu-95MS depart from secret Russian Anadyr base,” BulgarianMilitary.com, 2 September 2024.
