(Analysis) China-North Korea: Brotherhood or Strategic Necessity? 

China and North Korea are often regarded as close allies. Despite harsh international sanctions, China has demonstrated its support by providing North Korea with economic aid, trade, and resources. Beyond economic assistance, the unique mutual defense agreement, Sino-North Korean Treaty of 1961, obliges China to intervene against unprovoked aggression. This treaty underscores the strategic depth of their relationship. Officials from both sides often refer to their relationship as a “brotherhood”. However, is this really the case? Evidence suggests it may not be as close as it appears. Evolving dynamics influence developments in the Korean Peninsula and the broader Asian region.

Understanding the China-North Korea Relations

Historically, the fight against Japanese colonialism played a crucial role in aligning China and North Korea. In the 1930s, Kim Jong Un led Korean guerrillas in northeastern China, fighting alongside Chinese soldiers against Japanese colonizers. Such alliance on the battlefield became the cornerstone for the establishment of friendship. China and North Korea formally declared close relations in October 1949, shortly after the founding of the People’s Republic of China. This declaration was a significant step in solidifying the alliance between the two countries, which has endured for decades.

Geographically, China and North Korea share a border, ensuring their close relations. This proximity facilitates economic exchanges, security cooperation, and cultural interactions, further strengthening their alliance.

Map showing the geographical proximity and strategic relationship between North Korea and China. Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

Beyond geography, the evolution of the China-North Korea alliance can be explained by the persistence of communist ideology and the single-party system in both countries. Moreover, shared interest in defending communism and opposing foreign powers like, the United States. The Korean War (1950-53), when Chinese troops flooded the Korean Peninsula to aid their northern ally against the US-led South, exemplifies how their relationship has evolved through ideological alignment.

On the other hand, continued economic and social support from China to North Korea further cemented this bond. China still accounts for over 90% of North Korea’s total trade, for example, food and energy imports. China’s capacity to shield Pyongyang from economic and political pressure positions Beijing as a crucial player in efforts to influence North Korea.

Consequently, some scholars characterize the relationship between China and North Korea as that of “big brother” and “little brother”. In this age-old dynamic, China plays the “big brother,” while North Korea is the “little brother.” Ideologically, and socially, North Korea has belonged to the Chinese zone of influence. Shared threat perceptions have also fostered cooperation between the two countries. However, this partnership is not between equals. China, being vast, powerful, and economically strong, has always been the dominant party, making North Korea a client state in this relationship.

Deciphering Motives: North Korea and China’s Underlying Drive

To truly grasp the roots of this distrust, it is essential to understand the goals driving the leaders in both countries. 

• North Korea

For North Korea, the ultimate goal is regime survival and securing state autonomy. This objective is particularly pronounced in the current era under Kim Jong-un’s leadership. Young Kim faces numerous challenges, including economic and social hardships. Political oppression and a growing inability to instil fear among its citizens. These difficulties have led to a breakdown of loyalty not only among the masses but also within the party. The increasing number of defectors is alarming for Kim as well.

Uncertainties loom over a potential fourth dynastic succession, fueled by frequent rumours about Kim Jong-un’s ailing health. There are considerations of grooming his teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as the next leader of the Kim dynasty. Traditions may hinder this transition as there is no precedence of passing leadership to a female member. Reducing Chinese influence in politics has been crucial for upholding North Korea’s state autonomy. China, often perceived as the “big brother,” has historically wielded influence through high-ranking North Korean officials. However, Kim and his administration have actively worked to diminish Chinese involvement in North Korean affairs, seeking to rebalance the uneven relations with China.

These concerns shape North Korea’s objectives and contribute to the complexity of its relationship with China. Particularly in terms of securing the Kim dynasty and reducing China’s influence.

• China

One of China’s key objectives is to expand its influence in the international arena. China’s active engagement in global affairs, exemplified by its role as a core member of the UN Security Council, is pivotal in achieving this goal. Maintaining a positive international reputation is paramount for China, particularly in its dealings with North Korea.

Simultaneously, China seeks to uphold its power dynamics and aspire to become the regional leader. With the United States, under former President Trump, aiming to reduce its presence in Asia, China perceives an opportunity to assert itself as the regional leader. Consequently, considerations about their international reputation and concerns about regional dynamics become significant factors in China’s approach to dealing with North Korea.

Shifting Tides: Reassessing the China-North Korea Relations

There have been considerable frictions between China and North Korea over the years. The loss of Japan as a shared common enemy has strained the once-strong bond between China and North Korea. They now prioritize different objectives and pursue divergent interests. Unlike the earlier leaders of both countries, who shared the experience of fighting against Japanese colonialism, the new, younger leaders lacked this common background. This absence of shared history provides them with less incentive to strongly invest in preserving their relationship.

The Korean War marked the first significant source of tension between the two countries. Despite their alliance during the conflict, underlying distrust began to surface. At that time, China was not fully invested in the war, as the Taiwan Strait crisis diverted its attention. China’s support for North Korea was primarily driven by its national security interests. The heavy casualties suffered by both sides, including approximately half a million soldiers killed or wounded and the death of Mao’s son, further strained their relationship. North Korean leaders blamed Chinese military officials for failing to reunify the Korean peninsula. These factors reveal a level of distrust between China and North Korea, indicating that their relationship may not be as close as commonly perceived. These tensions have also sown the seeds of further discord, contributing to ongoing complexities in their relationship.

China’s reform and opening-up policies led to an economic boom and reconnected the country with the international arena, gradually establishing China as a crucial player on the global stage both economically and politically. The adoption of Sino-capitalism and the development of relationships with “rival” countries like the United States and South Korea were viewed by North Korea as a betrayal.

The Chess Game of China-North Korea Relations

The manifestations of such distrust are actively reflected in the actions and responses from both sides. These suggest shifting dynamics between China and North Korea, taking into account their respective objectives. It is a strategic game played out by the two parties, extending beyond mere brotherhood.

Removing Chinese Influence

Similar to his predecessors, Kim Jong Un has actively worked to remove foreign involvement to consolidate his power and secure his regime. There is a long history of the Kim dynasty eliminating foreign influence. Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung, removed pro-Soviet and pro-Chinese factions within the senior leadership in the years following the Korean War.

The death of Kim Jong Nam, Kim Jong Un’s brother, in 2017 further exemplifies North Korea’s defiance of Chinese influence. Although Kim Jong Nam was disinterested in politics, he maintained close ties with China, supported Chinese-style economic reforms, and lived under Chinese protection. This connection made Kim Jong Nam a perceived threat in Kim Jong Un’s eyes, especially if China ever sought to replace him. Adding to the intrigue, the assassination occurred one day after a missile launch. While Chinese officials remained muted on the issue, stating that the killing did not occur on Chinese soil. Experts commented that the event revealed North Korea’s defiance of China, undermining China’s international reputation and sending a message that China could not control North Korea.

“It will be harder for China to convince the international community that North Korea can evolve peacefully into a modern society.”

Zhao Tong, a foreign affairs expert at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre in Beijing. Source: Financial Times

Nuclear Ambitions: A Strategic Tug-of-War Between China and North Korea

North Korea’s nuclear and missile development is another significant point of contention between China and North Korea. Although North Korea’s nuclear programme began in 1965 with assistance from the Soviet Union and China. China’s stance has evolved as its strategic objectives have shifted. China has become more cautious in handling North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Historically, China has viewed North Korea as a crucial buffer zone. While a nuclear-armed North Korea could potentially limit actions from the United States. North Korea’s aggressive missile tests have created challenges for China. These tests, seemingly beyond China’s control, have raised concerns. Despite Chinese officials not openly denouncing North Korea’s actions, their inability to influence Pyongyang has undermined China’s reputation.  Moreover, North Korea’s continued nuclear development has alarmed nearby countries like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, as well as the U.S. This has led to the strengthening of military and security alliances to counter potential threats. The renewed U.S. presence in Asia is not desirable for China, complicating its strategic interests in the region.

North Korea’s actions, including its nuclear and missile development, can be seen as a strategic move to rebalance the “little-big brother” dynamic with China. By developing its own nuclear arsenal, North Korea demonstrates its ability to defend itself independently, reinforcing its sovereignty and reducing the perception of being a subordinate ally. A nuclear-armed North Korea can use its capabilities as a bargaining chip in international negotiations, thereby increasing its strategic value without relying on China. The 2018 meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump illustrates how nuclear weapons serve as strategic leverage for North Korea. This meeting had the potential to sideline China from the negotiations, which could harm China’s geopolitical interests. This forced China to restore ties with North Korea to maintain its regional influence. Evident in 5 summits between Xi and Kim in less than one year after the summit.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons development has put significant international pressure on China. China’s support for international sanctions against North Korea has multifaceted implications. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China faces substantial international pressure to uphold global non-proliferation norms and respond to North Korea’s provocative actions. Supporting sanctions helps China maintain its image as a responsible global power.

However, China is not without bargaining chips in this scenario. Beijing has backed UN resolutions against Pyongyang, it holds significant leverage over North Korea due to its role as the country’s primary economic and trade partner. This economic dependency gives China considerable influence over North Korea’s actions and decisions. China’s ability to provide or withhold crucial resources and support means that it can exert pressure on Pyongyang when necessary, balancing its strategic interests while managing the complexities of their relationship. Consequently, China has often withheld full support for sanctions until they were diluted. This approach indicates that China’s handling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons development is driven more by strategic calculations than by genuine alliance. Revealing that their relationship is not as affectionate as it might appear.

The year 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of their bilateral relationship. Kim has declared it the “year of DPRK-China friendship,” and Xi has called the year an opportunity to uphold “long-standing friendship. While outwardly cooperative, the underlying tensions and strategic manoeuvring reveal a partnership driven by necessity rather than genuine alliance.

Further Readings:

• Lee ,Chung Min. “The Hollowing Out of Kim Jong Un’s North Korea”.Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. April 29 2024.
• Wang, Chenjun and Mcgregor, Richard. “Fourth Reasons why China Supports North Korea”. The Interpreter. March 4 2019.
• Bennet, Bruce W. “North Korea and China Aren’t the Allies You Think They Are”. Rand. September 27, 2023