Leapfrogging into the Dark: Artificial Intelligence and the Limits of Developmental Transcendence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is recognised as a general-purpose technology capable of compressing developmental trajectories, transcending historical constraints, and catalysing broad-based economic progress in the Global South. In Africa particularly, an increasingly prominent Promethean discourse imagines AI as possessing a uniquely elastic and scalar capacity for cross-sectoral integration, capable of generating developmental gains across healthcare, education, agriculture, finance, and public administration; the dream, in its fullest iteration, being of a continent that inherits abundance without enduring the long, grinding ordeal of industrialisation that was, in any case, never fully permitted to run its course. In their more modest expression, these visions are not unsubstantiated – cases of AI-assisted healthcare delivery in Kenya and AI-enabled education services in Rwanda, inter alia, lend credence to AI’s elasticity. Yet, given the scale of capital investment and depths of institutional capacity required for their realisation, the conditions underpinning these claims nevertheless warrant closer examination.

The Politics of Emergence: African Middle Powers and Strategic Cooperation on AI

The African Union (AU), in its first and only continent-wide AI strategy, turns to a familiar source of authority: an estimate of generative AI’s impact on global GDP by McKinsey. Somewhat arbitrarily, the AU extracts a neat 5 percent share for Africa and concludes that generative AI could add between $110 to $220 billion to African GDP a year. A striking figure, certainly. A very elastic one too. To dwell on the elasticity of these projections is, perhaps, to miss the point. Whether the figure is $110 to $220 billion is secondary to the conditions under which Africa’s AI gains might be realised.