![[Analysis] Rolling the Dice on the Development Road: Will Iraq and Türkiye Hit the Jackpot?](https://i0.wp.com/thenewglobalorder.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/project.png?resize=1592%2C250&ssl=1)
![[Analysis] Rolling the Dice on the Development Road: Will Iraq and Türkiye Hit the Jackpot?](https://i0.wp.com/thenewglobalorder.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/project.png?resize=941%2C200&ssl=1)
With experience living in Egypt and Türkiye, Michele has developed a profound understanding of the region's intricate history, social dynamics and contemporary issues. His research centers on social movements, from their emergence to their societal and political impact. Michele's research has particularly focused on Türkiye, examining the role of pop art in articulating anti-government sentiments.
As a content writer for TNGO, Michele is committed to delivering unbiased and accurate information on the Middle East, seeking to offer a comprehensive understanding of the region without perpetuating stereotypes or narratives.
Relations between Iraq and Türkiye have historically been strained. Water disputes over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and unlawful Turkish military operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq are just some of the challenges that have contributed to nearly a century of tensions between the two countries. However, a meeting on April 22nd between Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suggests a change is taking place. The Baghdad summit appears to have laid the groundwork for a potential partnership, as both leaders expressed interest in moving beyond past conflicts to pursue strategic collaboration. This renewed interest in closer ties and collaboration is further demonstrated by the signing of 26 memoranda of understanding, through which Iraq and Türkiye pledge to jointly develop projects across key areas. These include initiatives aimed at securing vital water resources for Iraq, developing joint education programs, and facilitating tourism between the two countries, among others. These projects are significant and promise to bring meaningful benefits to both nations; however, the economic initiatives are drawing the most attention, with the Development Road project taking the spotlight.
The Development Road is a visionary project aimed at creating a new, faster trade route linking Europe to Asia through Iraq and Türkiye. Starting at the under-construction al-Faw megaport — set to become the region’s largest port — the route will traverse Iraq’s highways and railways before reaching Türkiye’s key Ovaköy junction. From there, goods will continue their journey to Europe via the Mersin Port or the Kapıkule land passage. This new route is expected to cut transit times to just 25 days — compared to 35 days via the Suez Canal and 45 days around the Cape of Good Hope — providing a major boost to trade between Europe and Asia.
Countless Benefits: The Advantages for Iraq and Türkiye
Besides providing advantages for those who will use the route, the Development Road promises to offer significant benefits to Iraq and Türkiye as the countries leading the initiative. First, it is expected to position both nations as key commercial hubs, potentially increasing their influence in international trade and global affairs. Second, the project is anticipated to generate an estimated $4 billion in revenue and create over 100,000 new jobs, providing a significant boost to both countries’ economies and offering them a path out of their current crises.
However, beyond geopolitical and economic benefits, the Development Road is also expected to grant Iraq and Türkiye valuable opportunities to advance domestic objectives. For the fragile Baghdad government, the Development Road presents a chance to foster long-term domestic stability. The substantial revenue generated by the initiative is expected to make stability a more attractive goal for all local actors. This could encourage figures traditionally opposed to the government — such as Muqtada al-Sadr, the influential Shiite cleric and politician behind much of Iraq’s recent instability — to reconsider their positions and seek compromises with the government, ultimately advancing the project and benefitting the Iraqi people.
At the same time, the initiative’s promise to reduce goods transportation times between Europe and Asia is anticipated to elevate Iraq’s stability to a matter of global priority. This logistical advantage could, in fact, prompt global powers — particularly Western nations — to take a more active interest in Iraq’s situation. Such attention could play in favour of Baghdad, as it may gain support from international powers in its efforts to maintain security and stability within its borders.
For Türkiye, on the other hand, the Development Road presents an opportunity to address its longstanding Kurdish issue. For decades, the Ankara government has opposed peaceful calls for Kurdish independence, not only within Türkiye but also in Iraq. In fact, it has worked to prevent the emergence of an independent Iraqi Kurdistan, fearing that such a development would inspire similar demands or calls for annexation within its own Kurdish population. However, the Development Road appears to mitigate this risk as its success relies on a unified Iraq, potentially quashing Kurdish peaceful demands in Iraq and, by extension, in Türkiye.
Nonetheless, the project also provides Türkiye with a chance to counter separatist demands expressed through armed resistance. With much of the Road passing through PKK strongholds, the need for security creates an opportunity for the Turkish government to launch full-scale operations and dismantle the organisation. An opportunity it will likely take, as a victory would create the conditions for a final resolution to the Kurdish issue on its own terms.
Countless Challenges: The Obstacles Facing the Development Road
Security: The Biggest Hurdle
As observed, the potential benefits of the Development Road are considerable. However, the challenges to its successful completion are equally significant, with security issues emerging as the greatest menace. In fact, both Iraq and Türkiye face threats from armed groups that could present obstacles to the project’s construction.
ISIS — although reduced to approximately 1,000-2,500 militants — remains a destabilising force in the region. At present, the group’s presence and activities are mainly confined to areas outside the designated route for the Development Road. This, however, does not rule out the possibility of them extending their operational range and resorting to sabotage or acts of violence to disrupt the project. ISIS may be motivated to carry out such attacks, as the hefty revenues expected from the project could represent a threat to the group’s existence — especially given the high likelihood that these would be used to finance counterterrorism efforts. As such, the Islamist group may attempt preemptive strikes to disrupt the project’s timeline and secure its interests.
In a similar manner, the PKK may make use of violence as the Development Road threatens its interests — if not its survival. The group holds many of its strongholds in areas between Iraq and Türkiye — precisely where the Development Road is set to pass. This factor makes them a primary target not only for the Ankara government — with whom they have been “at war” since the 1980s — but also for the Baghdad government, as both countries aim to secure the area for the project. The threat of large-scale coordinated operations from Turkish and Iraqi forces could push the PKK to escalate its activities, targeting multiple locations along the Road and possibly across both countries — with Türkiye being the main target given the widespread presence of PKK cells across the country. Such escalation would in all likelihood force both governments to prioritise national security over the Development Road, delaying — if not thwarting — the project’s realisation.
In view of these threats, Turkish and Iraqi authorities must act smartly and quickly, not just to weaken these groups but to fully dismantle them. Failing to do so could compromise the success of the project.
Domestic and Regional Dynamics Complicating the Plans
Obstacles to the Development Road’s realisation may emerge from not only security threats but also political dynamics involving local and regional actors. One actor that could present an obstacle is the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Although controlling the area where the final 15 km of the Road between Iraq and Türkiye will pass, the KRG has been left out of any discussions regarding the project. This exclusion has caused discontent in Erbil, with Kurdish authorities threatening that they may withhold construction approval unless recognised as active stakeholders in the project. This warning has not so far prompted any response from Ankara and Baghdad, though its character is well understood. It is, in fact, very improbable that the two governments would search for alternatives, as bypassing these 15 kilometers would mean restructuring the layout of the Road — which translates to extra costs and delays. As such, it seems clear that if the project is to be achieved, Iraq and Türkiye will need to engage with the KRG and make some concessions to secure its cooperation and keep the project moving forward.
“On many occasions, we affirmed our support for all efforts to establish the [Development Road]. [However], just like without Faw [Port] and Basra, there will be no [Development] road without Kurdistan[‘s involvement]”
Ano Jawhar Abdoka – KRG Minister of Transport & Communications
Another actor that could hamper the project is Iran. For the time being, the Tehran government is uninterested in the project, as it is preoccupied with other more pressing matters — such as the threats from Israel to its nuclear facilities and the renewed imposition of tougher economic sanctions by the US. However, should it perceive the Development Road as a factor that would undermine its influence in Iraq and its interests in the region more generally, then there is a high chance that it would use its proxies scattered throughout the country to disrupt and delay the project’s progress. In this scenario, it will be important for both Iraq and Türkiye to find a diplomatic solution that prevents tensions from escalating into a full-blown conflict — whether in a political or military sense.
Will the Money Last?
In addition to political and security aspects, the project faces financial risks as well. Currently, Qatar and the UAE are providing economic support to Iraq and Türkiye for the project. However, it remains unclear whether their funding will continue throughout all construction stages. This uncertainty around the commitment of international actors poses a significant threat, as it is doubtful that Iraq and Türkiye can bear the costs alone — especially with the expenses projected to exceed the initial $17 billion estimate.
Iraq’s economic resources are strained, with much of its budget being used for security and welfare systems essential for maintaining stability. Additionally, its resources are unstable, as they rely heavily on oil exports, which are highly susceptible to fluctuations in global demands. Likewise, Türkiye’s resources are under pressure as the country faces economic challenges caused by unorthodox policies. These conditions could undermine both countries’ commitment to the project. In this scenario, the two governments may have no choice but to look for other investors to keep the dream of the Development Road feasible and alive.
Betting on the Right Horse?
Whether the Development Road will ever see the light of day is hard to say. As highlighted earlier, numerous challenges could hinder its realisation. However, if brought to life, the project will still need to prove its effectiveness and the advantages it promises — a task that will not be easy. The Development Road will, in fact, have to compete with other regional infrastructure projects aimed at strengthening trade routes connecting Europe to Asia via the Middle East — such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Backed by powerful stakeholders, these alternative initiatives could pose a major threat to the Development Road’s success by diverting attention and resources away from it. With so many players in the game, the competition for dominance is fierce.
Despite this, Iraq and Türkiye remain determined to continue gambling on the Development Road. While the stakes remain undeniably high, the potential rewards — ranging from economic growth to political stability — are even more enticing. In other words, the potential jackpot is simply too tempting to resist. As Iraq and Türkiye place their bets on the Development Road, the question remains: will their risks pay off, or will they be overtaken by challenges and competition?
Only time will tell, but for now, the game is on.
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