- Critical Minerals and the New Scramble for Southern Africa. - 30 March, 2026
- Why Central Africa’s Conflicts Remain Invisible in Global Politics. - 7 March, 2026
As the global race for clean energy accelerates, Southern Africa’s vast mineral wealth is once again drawing intense interest from world powers.
Introduction: The Return of Resource Geopolitics.
The forthcoming world conflict is not territorial war, but mineral war.
Due to the fast pace of the world turning into clean energy and digital technologies, the demand of such critical resources as cobalt, lithium, and copper is soaring. The minerals are not a commodity anymore; they are the components of electricity cars, renewable energy, and high-tech production. In this new environment, geopolitical power is taking on a new meaning, with supply chain control becoming a major factor of power.
At the center of this change is Southern Africa. The region contains some of the world’s largest reserves of cobalt in Democratic Republic of Congo, large copper belts extending into Zambia and large lithium reserves in Zimbabwe and Namibia. The extraction perspective on what used to be considered to be more of an extractive type is being reconsidered as one of the strategic asset bases.
In Washington, Beijing and Brussels, the world powers are reevaluating their involvement into the region. Investments are escalating, relationships are intensifying and diplomacy is becoming keener. But under this new interest is an old antagonism, in new terms: will Southern Africa make this new scramble, or be made by it again?
The World Superpower and the Strategic Resource Tussle.
The modern struggle over important minerals is not a coincidence. It is propelled by the changes in the world economy. The shift to low-carbon energy systems has heightened the urgent role of ensuring good access to important inputs and states are becoming much more likely to view the inputs as issues of national security.
China has been operating strategically over the years in this space. It has established a strong monopoly in certain sections areas of the mineral supply chain, especially cobalt refinery through a mixture of state-supported investment, long-term contracts, and infrastructure investments. It is not purely a commercial presence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, but a larger plan of establishing itself in the upstream and downstream parts of the resource production.
The European Union and the United States, who have realized the dangers of supply concentration, are currently responding. Southern Africa is once again in the strategic field of vision as a result of new initiatives to diversify supply chains, promote the concept of responsible sourcing, and establish alternative partnerships. Contracts are being concluded. The mechanisms of financing are being broadened. Urgency is becoming more and more a part of diplomatic language.
But this is not only a battle of the forces outside. It is a transfiguration of power. Southern African states are no longer docile regions where the global competition is played. They are bargaining, compromising and in certain instances they are bargaining competing areas to get better deals. Recent interactions by Zambia in relation to copper investment such as the one that has taken place is an indication of a change towards more aggressive resource diplomacy. Likewise, the discussion about beneficiation, like ,the local processing of raw materials, is an indication of the increasing realization that value chains are as important as extraction.
Still, asymmetries remain. Availability of capital and technology as well as access to international markets will still leave the power of bargaining in the hands of the outside forces. Imbalances are usually concealed by the language of partnership. What seems to be rivalry among major actors may in reality be an effort to seek pressure on resource endowed states to conform, invest, or compromise.
The new scramble in this aspect is not a direct replica of the former. It is more complicated, more stratified and arguably more nuanced. It is, however, a scramble, but one with different parameters, whereby it is no longer a territorial conquest that is determined, but rather a supply chain control.
Southern African State Opportunities and Risks.
For Southern Africa, this is the time of opportunity and risk – a slender bridge between change and recurring.
On the one hand, increasing world demand provides the environment of economic growth. Export incomes have the potential to grow. The investment in infrastructure can be speeded up. More jobs can be created especially when emphasis is laid on value addition. The green transition language provides a discourse whereby the region can establish itself as being indispensable to global economy future.
Strategic agency is also allowed. Governments can leverage a relatively strong position by diversifying their ties and not relying on a single external actor. Bargaining power may also be increased by pursuing regional coordination; in other words, Southern African states would have the opportunity to influence terms not individually, but as a bloc.
But dangers are no less than those.
The history of resource extraction in Africa is not impartial. It is characterized by dependency, enclave economies and poor local value capture. Unless there is active policy intervention, it is hardly certain that the current wave of mineral demand will yield fundamentally different successes. Indeed, the reality of globalization can encourage expedited mining instead of good governance.
Governance issues are still at the center stage. Openness in contracts, responsibility in managing revenues, and ability of institutions to control multifaceted contracts will dictate whether mineral wealth will become broad-based development. It is in these areas where such systems are weak that the benefits of resource wealth are usually concentrated and, in the worst cases, that lead to political instability.
The picture is complicated by environmental considerations as well. The green transition paradox is that it relies on intensive extraction. Unless managed well, mining activities may cause enormous ecological losses, displacement of people, and local opposition to them. The sustainable energy promise in another country should not be at the expense of unsustainable actions in the region.
Timing is another question. The world need of certain minerals is oriented to modern technological course. When such paths change, perhaps, due to innovation, substitution, or policy changes, the value of some of these resources would vary. Dependence on few exports can thus expose the economies to instability in the future.
Southern Africa, in a sense, is very much at a crossroads, with a lot more to lose. It will no longer be just a source of raw materials; the region will be a source of the pillars of a world shift. The choice to make decisions today will determine whether it will capture a significant portion of that transition.
Conclusion
The new scramble of Southern Africa is not trumpeted. It is developed silently, by contract, investment and alliances. The implication of it is far-reaching.
Global power is becoming more and more associated with control of materials, which form the basis of the modern economies. Southern Africa does not figure in this new order as a peripheral region, it is central. Whether it matters is not the issue, but what is the way the region is converted to power.
Cautious optimism has its reasons. The consciousness of previous trends is greater. Value addition and resource sovereignty is more eminent in language. Negotiating space can be brought about by external competition when it is properly handled.
Strategic awareness in itself is not strategy.
Unless this moment is handled in synchronization, with institutional reinforcing, and with a clear vision of the long-term development, the region one can easily replay an old script that has seen wealth being drained as structural problems persist.
Should, however, the Southern African states manage to translate the mineral wealth into industrial capacity, infrastructure and inclusive growth, then the new scramble may turn out as a turning point.
The soil in the Southern part of Africa is fertile. The question is, will the region be able to bring that richness into permanent power, or will it, once again, make prosperity in other regions?
Additional Reading
International Energy Agency, 2023. The role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions. Paris: IEA.
https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions
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World Bank, 2020. Minerals for climate action: The mineral intensity of the clean energy transition. Washington, DC: World Bank.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/extractiveindustries/publication/minerals-for-climate-action
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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2023. Commodities at a glance: Special issue on strategic battery raw materials. Geneva: UNCTAD.
https://unctad.org/publication/commodities-at-a-glance-special-issue-strategic-battery-raw-materials
